Whoa! The 10x Difference Between TrimTabs December Jobs Estimate of 38,000 New Jobs and ADP’s Estimate of 325,000 Begs an Explanation

For the second consecutive month, ADP has forecast an unusually high estimate of private job creation for the BLS payroll report. This month ADP's estimate is 325,000 jobs. Last month, and on many other occasions, ADP's estimates and the BLS reports were miles apart. Is one better than the other?

While pondering that question, this month Trim Tabs has stepped up to the plate with a forecast of 38,000 jobs.

Explaining Trim Tabs 38,000 Jobs Estimate



Madeline Schnapp, Editor of "TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis" and "TrimTabs Employment NewsFlash" provided a transcript of the above video.

Video Transcript
Hello from Sausalito California Today is Thursday January 5, 2012. I am Madeline Schnapp with Today’s Macro Musings.

On Tuesday, January 3rd TrimTabs released its December jobs estimate which showed the U.S. economy added only 38,000 new jobs. Today, ADP released its December jobs estimate pointing to job growth of a stunning 325,000 new jobs, almost 10 times TrimTabs estimate. In addition, the consensus estimate for the BLS report this Friday is for 150,000 jobs. Whoa! The differences between the three estimates begs the question of what is going on here?

Before we answer that question, a few observations are in order. First, we challenge the notion that the BLS should be the standard bearer for job growth in the U.S. because its estimates are frequently revised, ranging from a few percent to several hundred percent. For example, in August, the BLS revised its estimate up from 0, a showing an economy on the verge of recession, to 104,000 showing an economy experiencing positive but weak economic growth. Second, the BLS and the ADP estimates are based on surveys that are incomplete when released. The BLS survey is only about 70% to 75% complete when it releases its first estimate. Finally, seasonal adjustments from November through January are enormous and range from a low of 800,000 jobs to a high of 2.1 million jobs to account for the huge number of holiday seasonal jobs that come and go during the holiday season.

TrimTabs jobs estimate, on the other hand, is based on daily income tax withholdings to 130 million wage earners.

Historically, our jobs estimates have been more accurate than the BLS’. BUT and this is the big BUT, like ADP and the BLS, December and January are the most challenging months for the following reasons: First, if there are tax law changes, they typically expire or go into effect in December or January; second, there are two or three holidays in December, Veteran’s Day, the optional Christmas eve holiday, and Christmas day; finally, December kicks off bonus season which adds non job-growth taxable income to payrolls from late December through March. TrimTabs makes adjustments for these one time calendar effects but some years are more difficult than others as this one might be.

Given the trends in tax withholdings the last few months, there is no way that job growth was a whopping 325,000 in December, certainly not permanent job growth. If there was a big jump in permanent job growth in December we would have seen it in our other real-time indicator, TrimTabs Online Jobs Index. That index, however has declined 8.0% since October which means that hiring managers are sitting on the sidelines until more clarity emerges about economic growth this coming year.

The proof, as always, is in the pudding. Soon the BLS will release its benchmarked results for the year ending March 2011 which will allow us to truth our model. Let me tell you, we eagerly await those results.
Tax Law Changes to the Forefront

Note that the number one reason cited by Trim Tabs for the difficulty in making December jobs estimates is tax law changes.

I mentioned tax changes on Tuesday in Manufacturing ISM Highest Since June; Expiring Business Tax Credits Explain Why; Enjoy it While You Can As US Decoupling Won't Last.

For amusement purposes, I will step out on a limb and guess 78,000 jobs in Friday's BLS report.

Bear in mind there is likely to be many revisions to these numbers, so even if one is wrong tomorrow, it does not mean a guess was really wrong.

Following the Trim Tabs estimate, I gave a list of questions to Madeline Schnapp regarding Europe, oil, Japan and other fundamentals. She promised to respond later in more detail. I will post the questions and answers when she does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Blogroll

News for factory,Allied Cash Advance,Photography,Beach Water Park,Educational Leadership,Vacation And Travel,Wedding Dress,Family Vacation Packages,Casino and Gambling,Health Insurance,Best Auto Insurance ( BAF ),Web Hosting Professional,Home Design And Remodeling,Information Property For Home,Wireless TV Networking,Business Plan Guide,Educational Guide,Custom Essay Writing Service,Plumber Service And Repair,Property House,Architectural House Plans,Car Auto Services,Computer service and repair,Computer Networking,Business Planning Strategies,Womens Giving,Healthcare and Medical Jobs,Retail Inkjet Solutions,Online Casino Games,Alcohol Drug Treatment,Web Designers,Apollo Amatuer Night,Public School Performance,Kanza Museum,Cap Inter Entereprises Emploi,Culinary Tourism,Business Traveller,Bridal Expo,Container Atlas Architecture,Culinary Tours - Packages and Travel,Dancing Ink Productions,Defend Automotive Group,Real Finance Group,Business Consulting Services,Home Design Audio,Health Projects International,Health Resources,Health Effects of Alcohol,History of education,Vietnam travel guide,Westland Foundation,Lighting Business,Networking Business Professionals,Housing Decoration,Future Business,Health and Beauty Tips,Hotel Cafe and Restaurant,Enhancing Education,Home Improvement Projects,Political Philosophy,Healthy Grieving Process ,Unique Weddings in New Orleans,Art Plus Science ,Advantage Business Media,Mutual Financial Services,Adventure Travel and Holidays,Alternative Medicine Treatments,Web Design and Marketing,Electronic Payment Solutions,Life Success in Business,Devium Car Interiors,Easy Divers Academy,Water Treatment Process,Software Development Company,MSDS Translation Language,Orion International Technologies,Refreshing Summer Wine Guide,Learn Technical Writing,Health Spa and Resort,Creative Book Publishing,Positive Business Mentality,Charter Healthcare,Discount Hotel Rates,United Industries,Warrior Insurance,County Tourism and Vacations,Wedding Ring Jewelry,Studio Design Decorative,Journalism Careers,Gaming Accessories Computing,Business Strategy Consultant,Cefori Technologies Information,Physics and Astronomy,News Fashion,Business Online,Michigan Apartments,Legal Information Institute,Guide Fashion Shipping,Home Insurance Quotes,Web Design Trends,Musical Instruments and Gear,Travel and Leisure,Importance of Education,Auto Financing Loans,Contractor Business Systems,Business Travel,Importance of Sex Education,Education Classroom,Creative Idea Laboratory,Luxury Paradise Vacations,Healthiest Alcoholic Drinks,Sports Betting,Business Environment,Business Directory,Internet Services,Top Styles,Architecture and Design,Discovery Travel and Tourism,Drug Abuse Treatment,Cheap Auto Financing,Business and Technology,Online Trading,Casino Gambling,Easy Online Shopping,Education Games,Social Media Networks,Online Dating,Luxury Honeymoons,Media and Entertainment,Home Decorating Ideas,Insurance Services,Payday Loans Online,Beechwood Travel Guide,Paradise Garden,Business Trends Consulting,Expert School Consulting,Latest Fashion Trends,Alternative Health Care,Technology Trends In Society,Health Technologies Resources,Island Wedding Services,Network Society,Gambling Experts,Medical Insurance Expert,Home Repair and Remodeling,Sexual Health Services,Education Resources,Automotive Solutions,Michigan Trade Associations,Luxury Fashion and Accessories,Theoretical Physics,Financial Advice,Adult Online Dating (Escorts),Pets Health Insurance,Better Homes and Gardens,Avastone Technologies,Discover Student Loans,Sports Authority,Vitamins and Supplements,Business Systems Online,Food Network Recipes,Business and Government,Smart Legal Strategy,Occupational Health Care,Music Education,Online Dating Tips (Expert),Online Marketing Lexikon,Citizens Council Network,Economics and Finance,Fashion Entertainment News,Luxury Travel Destinations,Online Auto Insurance,Home Improvement Loans,Building Business Foundation,Human Resource Consulting,Educational Media pay day loans
life insurance quotes
Credit Loans (finance)
Foreign Auto Parts
Health and Fitness
Drug abuse effects
Destination hotels and resorts
Professional Financial Marketing
Personal Finance
Computers and Technology
Auto Insurance
Real Estate Property
Computer Graphics Technology
Home Improvement
Arts music schools
Online Education Classes
Hotel and Travel
Security development program
Business auto loans
Medical And Public Health Organizations
Land and Homes
Better Health Kids
Engineered Heating
Trade Finance Services
Switzerland Tourism
Casa Travel
Clothing Accessories
University of Technology
Best Law Schools
Marketing Technology
Vacation Tour and Travel
Insurance Agents and Insurance Brokers
Construction Engineering
Healthy Home Economist
Masters Home Improvement
Michigan Web Design
Personal Online Banking
Health Education Foundation
Travel Pack
Real Estate and Home Ideas
Museum Vacations Travel
Free Statistical Software
Blog Free Statistical
Buying and Selling Real Estate
Educational Play
Big Top Business
Alternative Health
smooth skin
Products and Services
Construction Project Management
Northside Car Service
Online Essay Writing
France Health
Europe Program Modernization
European Travel Destinations
Science and Technology Project
Online Store Marketing
Law Society Consulting
Business Networking Company
Motivation to Study
Metropolitan Hotel
Technological Innovation
EAP Business
Travel Guide and Virtual Tours
The Business Partnership
Accessible Accommodation
Entertainment News
Medicines Agency
Carpet Cleaning
International House
VIP Shop
Online Clothing Shop
Institute Education Religion
Ford Escort Team
Shop Engine Part
Computer Hardware
Medical Career
Paris Construction
Professional Translation
Streaming Wizard
Alcoholism and Drug
Medical Laboratory
Commerce Business
Educational Kids Play
Space Education
Home Repair Volunteer
Fashion Talent
Health and Safety Executive
Play Web Games
Travel and Surfing
Property and Estate Agents
Technology Group Solutions
Student Service Center
Construction Industry
Media Center Computer
Teny Fashion
Home Remodeling Services
Inspector Network
Car Rentals
Leader Dogs
Rise Health Systems
Business Strategy Consultant
Personal Life Coaching
Company Business Coaching
Entertainment News
Physics and Astronomy
Science and Technology
Cheap Vacation Packages
World Business Academy
Planets Project
Travel and Leisure
Prevent Drug Abuse
Education Certified
Play Kids Games
Legal Defense Fund
Real Estate Strategies
Isolation Globale
Insurance Coverage Law
Rock Hotel and Resorts
Medical Insurance
Healthy Mind and Body
Marjahaan Autokatsastus
Free Sports Authority
Auto Insurance Coverage
Global Technics
Advitium Manufacturing
Professional Core Education
Special Finance Services
Bergen County Contractors
Great Children's Art
Health Supply Company
Social Media Power
Texas House Restaurant
Carbon Consultant
Carbon Expert
Low Carbon
Reset Carbon
Healthcare Commissioning
Virtual Job Tryouts
Ethos Academy (Education)
Intrinsic Schools
Attorney General
Technology Software
Business Plans
Digital Media
High School Resources
Adult Resources
Gamblers Anonymous
Ecuador Real Estate
Software Development
Festival Fashion
Drugs And Alcohol
Business Intelligence
Food Network Recipes
Journal Human Resources
Games and Technology
Technology Development
Web Resources Express
Payday Loans Bad Credit
Art and Craft
Business and Finance News
Ecological Sciences
Education Resources
Web Design
Music Education
World Resources Institute
Business Health Guide
azplanningforwildlife.com m2tvchannel.com bapedaldaprovjambi.com kreis-dl.net news-1212.com landratsamt-doebeln.net landkreis-doebeln.net canadiangoldreserves.net chicagohearse.com tattooremovalessex.com braziltrade-uae.com 333asia.com calliemacdesigns.com gemdoc.net simplefoodjuiceplus.com postabortionstresssyndrome.com descendingpath.com casadopinhole.net myspeechandlanguage.net sezambook.com rerecognition.info bebetsy.info carsoncitybraces.info summitcardiology.info sanfojiangsi.info trailheadgeararchery.info immigrationconnect.info nhhomeless.info tundradialogues.info ibexretail.com kreis-dl.com agiles-eam.com bestbcgolfcourse.com niittyneito.com yenikapimevlevihanesi.com hnr100.com eplogin.com richard-wagner-festival.com landratsamt-doebeln.com lra-doebeln.com terrecatalane.com thesmarterhybrids.com