2013 - Just Like 2012

Only bloodier:

• In the first homicide of 2013, a 20-year-old man was killed in West Town, police and the Cook County medical examiner’s office said.
  
  Octavius Dontrell Lamb, 20, was shot in the throat in the 700 block of North Noble around 3:45 a.m. Tuesday. Lamb was pronounced dead at Northwestern Memorial Hospital at 4:16 a.m., according to the medical examiner’s office.
  
  
• Besides Lamb, Kevin Jemison, 29, was shot in the head about 2:45 p.m. Tuesday afternoon, in the 4500 block of South Champlain Avenue in the Grand Boulevard neighborhood, authorities said. Jemison, of the 4700 block of South Michigan Avenue, was taken to University of Chicago Medical Center where he died less than an hour later.
  
  Just before 5 p.m., Devonta Grisson, 19, was shot in the chest during an apparent drive-by in the Southwest Side Gage Park neighborhood, in the 5800 block of South Sacramento Avenue, police said. Grisson, of the 6700 block of South Artesian Avenue, was dead at the scene, according to the medical examiner’s office.

Three dead and 15 others wounded and the year isn't even 24 hours old yet. Taking this to the logical CompStat conclusion, Chicago should experience 1095 homicides and 5475 wounded. Way to Garry!

Discrepancy

Anyone from the Department or D-Unit care to explain?

• In 2012, 532 people were murdered in the city of Chicago, according to statistics compiled by the Crime in Chicago website. The number of people murdered the year before was 441, meaning in the city of Chicago, murders have increased by 91 from 2011 to 2012.
  
  The Chicago Police Department was not available to confirm these numbers today, which is New Year's Day.
  
  The website also claims that, through December 25, 2012, there 2,670 people were shot in Chicago last year. That's also an increase from the year before, when 2,217 people were shot in Chicago that year.

That 532 seems higher than the "official" number, meaning someone is counting homicides that the CPD doesn't.  Are the missing numbers all death investigations?

The "Crime in Chicago" website can be located here by the way.

Messy Weekend

The Christmas spirit must have been flowing heavily - two dead, eight wounded over the weekend. And we're not even sure if that counts the arson that killed one, severely burned two children and left the arsonist dead as well.

Arson deaths are still murders, right? Because we know they mess with the vehicular homicide numbers constantly, with "hit and run" deaths being counted various ways.

499 + 1 = 499

An open post to discuss the ongoing manipulation and falsification of crime statistics by the Streetlight Marksman.

See the "It's a Miracle" from yesterday for continuing discussion about the overt reclassification going on with crime numbers by McCompStat.

This jackass is a failure on so many levels, and now he's not even bothering to hide the number manipulation.

500?

The RedEye Homicide tracker has us at 500:

• Chicago on Wednesday logged its 500th homicide of the year—the first time the city has reached that threshold since 2008, according to a RedEye analysis of preliminary police data.
  
  A man was shot to death Wednesday in an alley east of California Avenue and south of 54th Street, the Tribune reported.
  
  Chicago homicides are up 15 percent this year compared to the same period last year, according to RedEye data. Homicides were up 60 percent in March compared to 2011 but the rate has slowed since then.

Here's what McDoofus is hanging his hat on though:

• Eighteen homicides have been logged so far this month; 37 homicides were logged in December 2011, RedEye data shows.

The "official" Department count has us stuck at 498 or 499. For some reason it's always been just below the RedEye tracker this year, so we can only assume something got reclassified somewhere.

Anyone know where the discrepancy is at? Or what? Because there was another website counting that had us at 526 or so, but they included police shootings and possibly vehicular homicides, too from what we heard.

499.....

In the bag?

• A man died after he was shot at least four times – including in the face and chest – in a Gage Park neighborhood alley Wednesday night on the Southwest Side, authorities said.
  
  Frederico Martinez, of the 5400 block of South California Avenue, died from gunshot wounds he suffered near his home, according to the Cook County Medical Examiner’s office.
  
  Police said he was Chicago's 499th homicide victim of the year.

The Tribune has all the requisite crying and moaning about how he was just about to turn it around after 30-plus years, 20 of it bangin' in the 'hood.

Another Plug Pulled

Another delayed homicide victim:

• A 26-year-old Chicago man who was shot in early November while sitting in his car on the Near Southwest Side has died, officials said.
  
  Michael Morgan, of the 1400 block of West 13th Street, died at 8:37 p.m. Saturday at John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital of Cook County, according to the Cook County medical examiner's office.

Rumor is McCompStat is demanding all "end-of-life" decisions have to be run through his office before plugs are pulled.   The paperowrk delay is said to be at least two weeks and Rahm added a $1 million fee to help balance his budget.

Almost There

The Tribune reports 5 injured in shootings:

• Shootings across the city late Saturday and early Sunday left at least five people injured, authorities said.
  
  About 2:15 a.m., a male was shot in the head in the 3500 block of West Diversey Avenue, Chicago Police Department News Affairs [...] said.
  
  He was taken from the scene of the shooting in the Northwest Side's Belmont Gardens neighborhood to Norwegian-American Hospital, where his condition was stabilized.

However, the Sun Times reports that "stabilized" means "dead:"

• About 2:15 a.m. Sunday, a man died after being shot in the head in the North Side Logan Square neighborhood in the 3500 block of West Diversey Avenue, said [...], a Chicago Police spokesman. 

The Tribune spent the entire day behind the curve:

• About 5:19 a.m., a male was shot on the 3300 block of West Crystal Street in the West Side’s Humboldt Park neighborhood, police said.
  
  Further information was not immediately available.

But that guy died, too.

The Sun Times reported three dead, pushing the year's total to around 495.

What "Assault Weapons?"

Statistics:

• Well from the CPDs own 2011 Murder analysis report we have some data...
  433 Total murders in Chicago
  361 were shooting victims 83% - Page 22.
  Then it gets confusing for the mayor (and cops since the numbers change a little on page 23, but are close, they state 361 shooting murders, then on page 23 say its 362).
  
  Breakdown:
  351 were shot with a pistol.
  1 was shot with a rifle.
  5 with a shotgun.
  and 5 "unknown".
  
  Assuming ALL of the unknowns are rifle shot. We can't say these are even "assault rifles" but lets assume even though statistically all unknowns being rifles and all being assault rifles is a reach.
  
  That's 6. SIX total, as compared to 351 with all the assumptions in the mayor's favor. More than likely none of them were rifle shot (seeing how known incidents show a 1:351 ratio of rifles to pistols).
  
  So basically an assault weapons ban does nothing, even if you could magically collect them all right?
  
  1 out of 362 is 0.27% of the murders...
  6 out of 362 is 1.6% assuming all of the numbers fall the Mayor's way.

So the fact remains that in Chicago at least,  "assault weapons" aren't used to kill people.  And banning them would make absolutely no sense whatsoever.  Unless you were looking to ban everything at some point.

Darn those statistics anyway!

Statistical Oops

Any math majors out there want to check these numbers?

• OT: the media needs to understand this so they stop buying into the Superintendent's bullshit of how he has reduced the homicide rate from 66% back in March.
  
  Just pulled the Crime Stats from the CPD website:
  
  As of 9/16/12 we had 382 murders compared to 303 murders for the same time frame in 2011, which is an increase of 79 murders and represents a 26% increase.
  
  The latest stats were just posted and as of 12/2/12 we had 484 murders compared to 399 murders for the same time frame in 2011, which is an increase of 85 murders (6 more dead bodies to the previous increase) but represents a 21% increase. Only the RATE of the increase slowed, but the increase remains. There has been no decrease!
  
  The supt keeps using this % as proof his initiatives are working...but the number of bodies dropping is going in the other direction. When will the media grow some balls and call him out on this?

Remember, CompStat is the deliberate manipulation of numbers to achieve a political result.  Nothing more.

Not the Weather? (UPDATE)

Oh the fun you can have with statistics.  You can even discover things that others seem to ignore. Remember how McNotSkilling says that the weather has nothing to do with crime? Here's a chart someone made for us:

As you can see, it covers a recent 29 day period. We aren't scientists, but those peaks and valleys seem to follow kind of closely. Not exactly of course, but enough to rule out pure coincidences. Add in another variable:

Even the low temperatures show some correlation to the amount of shootings.

We do believe that this could be a doctoral thesis to some enterprising college grad student. A bunch of data collection, a few FOIA requests and "presto!" You could be the next supernintendo of the Chicago Police Department.

UPDATE: Superintendent's nickname changed to reflect his inaccuracy as opposed to Tommy Skilling's actual accuracy.

Crime is Down...Except for.....

Everyone knows overall crime is down in Chicago, right? The mayor and the superintendent keep telling us so. Never mind the fact that CompStat is built to manipulate crime statistics, that it is being debunked by its very creators in New York City, that Milwaukee is in the middle of a crime counting scandal based on their version of CompStat. All that is just nonsense - if Rahm and McCarthy pretend it doesn't exist, the media lapdogs will cover for them.

So overall crime is down, except for those pesky killings and shootings. You can't easily hide a dead body first of all. And someone with extra holes in them is going to be treated at a hospital, so there's an outside paper trail that has to be explained. So the media will accept rises in these types of crimes, but continue to believe (and tell the public) that crime is down everywhere else.

Then this happens:

• Chicago is having a banner year for bank robberies.
  
  As of Dec. 7, the city reported 198 robberies, a 70 percent increase in the past four months, according to BanditTracker Chicago. At this rate, the number likely will cross 200 by year's end and could double the 2011 record of 115.
  
  It's not clear what's causing the jump, though the feds say hard economic times and the holidays aren't always to blame for the crimes.

Up 70%. Nearly double the 2011 totals, and although not in danger of passing the record of 284 set back in 2006, still on the way to break 200.

But overall crime is down? Ladies and Gents, you're being played. These aren't aberrations - these are the trends. You don't have increases in three major categories of this size without the trend being felt across the board. CompStat is all about the smoke and mirrors. Cutting manpower means boosting response times, making people fed up and them leaving without getting a report. If it doesn't get reported, it never happened. Same thing with the OEMC overtime - calls are through the roof, yet they won't hire anyone but they'll pay OT at the drop of a hat. No patrol officers being hired, no ET's processing scenes, no detectives investigating, it all points to pretty much one conclusion.

NOT the Weather (6 Dead Overnight)

Remember, it has nothing to do with the weather. Nothing at all. Overall crime is down!!!

• Just months after Alease Davies’ oldest son was murdered in the Back of the Yards neighborhood, her youngest son was injured Friday evening in a drive by shooting a few blocks away.
  
  “I said, ‘Oh my God, not again. It’s only been five months,” said Davies, who now lives in Calumet City. “Am I cursed, or what?”
  
  The injured man was one of six people shot within 10 minutes in two incidents on the South Side, authorities said. Lavelle Davies and another person was shot in the 1100 block of West 51st Street. On the 4200 block of South Wells, four people were shot — including a man who was fatally shot while sitting on his couch by bullets from outside the home.
  

You ain't cursed Mama - you just raised an entire family of assholes.

So that's a quadruple shooting and a double within 10 minutes. Way to go Chicago! If only we could get a triple in there. What's that you say?

• Three men were hospitalized in critical condition after being shot in the Uptown neighborhood, officials said.
  
  The shooting happened at 9:27 p.m. near the 5000 block of North Winthrop Avenue, said Chicago Fire Department Chief Joseph Roccasalva.
  
  The shooting left a 22-year-old, a man in his 30s, and another man whose age was not available, critically injured, Roccasalva said.

Double, triple, four-bagger. A single would mean we hit for the cycle tonight.

Fortunately, we already have, but those haven't made the papers yet since the media are busy with the multiple shootings. 012 and 002 had singles that we know of already. So we're up to at least a dozen shot overnight with two being fatals. That brings the yearly total up in the neighborhood of 485 before December even started.

Overall crime is down - but shootings and killings aren't. And aren't likely to be any time soon.

UPDATE: Media reports are 6 dead with 16 shot just in the past 14 hours or so.  Rahm is unavailable for comment and McCrimeIsDown is hiding under the bed.

"We're Doing Better"

Really?  Better than what?

• Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy on Monday touted the department's crime-fighting strategies in tamping down the city's murder rate since earlier this year when homicides skyrocketed.
  
  "This is not a zero-sum game. There has to be a recognition that we're doing better," McCarthy told reporters at a news conference at police headquarters. "I can't change what happened in the first quarter. What I can do, is to fix it going forward."
  

Well, if you want the credit now, then you have to take the blame from before, and even Stevie Wonder could see that disbanding the citywide response units ended up directly affecting the number of killings by a complete lack of response to the mayhem. We used to be able to shut neighborhoods down - not so much anymore.

• By April, homicides had soared 66 percent in Chicago compared with a year earlier, but that rate has been gradually brought down to about an 18 percent increase at this point, McCarthy said.
  
  McCarthy credited the reduction to the city's decision to demolish more vacant buildings, arrest more gang members and focus police attention on individuals who are more likely to commit crimes. In general, the city is seeing less overall crime that it did decades ago, McCarthy said.
  

Really? Now we're claiming a lack of vacant buildings as a crime fighting tool? Next, are we going to say the weather actually DOES effect the crime rate? Because you wouldn't know it checking today's stats, something like 3 or 4 dead on a Monday when the temps never got above 37 degrees.

And seriously, an 18% increase in the homicide count is nothing to brag about. Who gives a shit if it was at 66% for 3 months this year? Statistics are a long term proposition. We could argue killings are down 400% in the last hour since no one has died via gunfire, but we'd look like idiots.

• "The city is enjoying the lowest crime rate it has had in 30 years," McCarthy said. "We might be in a position where we are leading the nation in crime reduction."

Sure it is.  If we set 1,000 fires tonight, we could claim that arson is down tomorrow because we ran out of buildings to burn. This CompStat is so much bullshit and the guy running the calculator is stacking it five stories high.

Interesting Take on Violence

An interesting article in Business Insider.

How Chicago Became the Deadliest City in America:

• Things are pretty grim in Chicago following its deadliest summer in recent memory.
  
  By Oct. 21, Chicago had recorded 435 murders, ahead of 339 in New York and 241 in Los Angeles. The Windy City has the highest murder rate of all Alpha world cities, according to NBC Chicago.
  
  And while things are finally starting to slow down, the mood in the city definitely isn't great.
  
  As an Illinois ex-pat living in New York and looking on at one of my favorite cities from afar, I have to wonder, how did we get here?

The linked article points to numerous examples of  how Rahm and McJerseyShore lost 2012.

And it comes on the heels of this Sun Times headline yesterday:

• Three dead, thirteen wounded in Holiday Weekend Violence

This on a Saturday, completely discounting Saturday night and all day Sunday upcoming.

Blame the Doctors

McJersey has to be shaking his head at this one:

• A 19-year-old man shot in the knee earlier this month died after he developed an infection while being treated, according to the Cook County medical examiner’s office.
  
  His death was ruled a homicide.

Whoops.

If this was just a violation, it seems it got a little out of hand. 

And we're just teasing about blaming the doctors.  We're sure the bullet that struck him was sterile and not covered with all sorts of crud that may have contributed to the raging sepsis that killed the victim.

All is Well!

Nothing to see here.  Move along.  Keep spending money you touristy-types:

• Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Monday pointed to this weekend’s Magnificent Mile Lights Festival ceremony as proof that the city’s upper-crust Gold Coast is safe — despite two violent incidents there within 24 hours.
  
  “We had 1 million people and not a single incident” during the popular Saturday evening festival along Michigan Avenue, Emanuel told reporters.
  
  The stabbing of a festival visitor inside a bathroom of a Michigan Avenue hotel occurred about an hour after the festival concluded.

"not a single incident," aside from those people with the gaping knife wounds. And the jagoffs trying to run over the cop.  But if it didn't happen between certain hours, in full view of the television cameras....

Rahm is sure a big (figuratively speaking) fan of "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does anyone have to say anything at the CompStat meeting?"

Weekend Totals

Another four dead, including one killed by church law:

• The man was shot in the back by a gunman inside a minivan, police News Affairs [...]. The medical examiner’s office was not identifying the man pending family notification.
  
  Tizoc Tobias heard what sounded like a canon go off just outside his home Sunday morning, he said. Then he counted the shots — 10 in total.
  
  “The first reaction is to count the shots,” said Tobias, 38, standing with his 9-year-old son by the remaining police tape in the alley near his home.
  

We think the reporter may have meant "cannon" and not "canon," but they know better than we do with all their layers of fact checking and editorial oversight.

So four dead, twelve wounded, and we saw an article about someone who lingered for a week before succumbing to his Englewood induced wounds, so call it at least five.

In the Meantime...

...the dead keep stacking up, even on weeknights:

• Authorities tonight were investigating the fatal shootings of three men, one of whom was killed by his father, police said.

Everyone one of them bring us closer to 500, with a month-and-a-half to go.

Who has the current total?

An Interesting Article

Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon policing:

• With the number of murders in Chicago so far this year already surpassing the total for all of 2011, why would the police make it a priority to track down a teenager wanted for only a misdemeanor?
  
  It was because Milton was on the police department’s “heat list” — part of a new anti-violence strategy pushed by Supt. Garry McCarthy to arrest fugitives who have been linked to people who have been killed.
  
  The effort springs from a Yale University sociologist’s finding that these “hot people” are far more likely, as a result of those social ties, to become a victim or perpetrator of deadly violence themselves.

Now usually, anything from Yale involving police work would be fodder for a couple of days worth of comedy.  But this statistic caught our eye:

• Citywide, Chicago’s murder rate is 14.5 per 100,000. But it jumps to 44.5 per 100,000 in the Harrison District on the West Side, one of the city’s highest-crime districts. And for “hot people” in that district, the murder rate jumps to 1,865 per 100,000, according to the police department.

Interesting if it bears out over time.  The article deals with one individual wanted on a misdemeanor charge who ended up serving 30 days.  Granted, that's 30 days he isn't a potential victim,  but does it actually do anything except put off his almost inevitable demise?

Like we said, interesting in the short term.  Long term, we see is that it shows what a bunch of liars there are out there saying everyone shot is an "innocent victim."