I'm Confused, Can Anyone Do a Flow Chart?
Is this the part where moral relativism kicks in to tell us we have no right to comment? Anyway, your comments are welcome here:
Shanghai Homeowners Smash Showroom in Protest of Falling Prices; Developer Warns on Price Drops; "Twilight Zone" of Phony Accounting and Shadow Money
A group of around 400 homeowners in Shanghai demonstrated publicly and damaged a showroom operated by their property developer after the company said it cut prices. Home buyers had wanted to speak with the developer to refund or cancel their contracts but were unsuccessful, according to local media. One report said the price cuts exceeded 25% per square meter.22% Drop Overnight
The local media reports said an unspecified number of people were injured.
Chinese media separately reported that another group of Shanghai homeowners gathered on Saturday to speak with Longfor Properties Co., after it dropped asking prices to 14,000 yuan per square meter from 18,000 yuan per square meter at a residential development in the city’s Jiading district.
The Shanghai property-owner demonstration found little support on China’s Internet, where most still expressed worries that housing prices are too high.
The drop from 18,000 to 14,000 yuan is a 22% overnight drop and that is just a down payment on the carnage that is coming.
Housing Math in China
- 18,000 Yuan per square meter is about $2,835 per square meter
- One square meter = 10.7639104 square feet
- Cost per square foot = ($2,835 ÷ 10.7639104) = $263.38
In downtown Shanghai, the price is 48,000 yuan per square meter or roughly $696.77 per square foot.
I am told these are for roughly finished units (no carpeting, appliances, etc), just stark bare units.
For more on absurd Downtown Shanghai property prices, please see Property Developers Hurting in China; New Homes Sales Down 50% in Shanghai; Preposterous Prices Won't Last; Commodities to be Hit in Building Slump
Protests Hit China as Property Prices Fall
Yahoo! Finance has additional protest details in Protests hit China as property prices fall
Hundreds of angry home buyers launched a series of protests in China's commercial hub of Shanghai this week, as owners decried falling prices for their properties, state media said Thursday.S&P 10% Decline Prediction is Hugely Understated
In the latest incident, some 200 home owners on Wednesday besieged the sales office for a project of leading developer Greenland Group, demanding refunds.
"We require a refund because the loss we are suffering now is too great for us to afford," the Shanghai Daily quoted a protestor as saying.
He paid 17,000 yuan ($2,678) per square metre last year and claimed the developer had cut the price by around 30 percent to boost sales.
In a another incident, 30 home owners stormed the sales office of a project of Hong Kong-listed China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. on Wednesday, the Global Times said, repeating a similar protest from over the weekend.
Demand for apartments has been falling after authorities, fearing a property bubble, banned the purchase of second homes, increased minimum downpayments and trialled property taxes in some cities -- including Shanghai.
At the same time, property developers have been hit by a lack of funds, as the government hiked interest rates and restricted bank lending to rein in surging inflation and bring real estate prices into line.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's expects China's property prices to fall by 10 percent nationwide over the next year as the measures take effect.
Prices in many places are already down 20 to 30 percent and things will get to the 50 t0 70 percent decline mark before this is over.
"Twilight Zone" of Phony Accounting and Shadow Money
MarketWatch says Watch out for China’s ‘freak’ economy
Ten years ago, homes in Shanghai sold for about six times an average family’s income. Today that’s 13 times. Shenzhen has gone from five times to 14 times. These are off-the-charts absurd ratios. This is a bona fide mania.Hard Landing Coming
And it works fine until the music stops. Where are we now?
Prices have started falling. Now, fewer than 46 of 70 major cities saw prices stall or decline in September, reports the National Statistical Bureau. As recently as January the number was just 10.
In the past two and a half years, China has witnessed a staggering credit bubble. Total lending has come to about $7.8 trillion.
To put this in context, that is twice the entire net government debts of the European so-called “PIIGS” — the troubled countries of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — put together.
An alarming report from Schroders said Chinese banking operates in a “twilight zone” of phony accounting and shadow money and it’s all coming apart. “Almost half of all credit creation in China is off balance sheet,” wrote the team at Schroders.
They think this situation could unravel “over the next three to six months,” producing a huge crisis with international implications. Most Chinese banks, they predict, will end up as “zombie banks.”
The Financial Times reports China property developer warns on price falls
China's largest real estate developer believes the country's property market, a key driver for the economy, has turned and expects conditions to worsen in the coming months as sales prices volumes decline further.The property bust is underway in China and will spread from city to city just as it did in the US. No city will be immune and commodity prices will be smashed in the downturn.
China Vanke, the country's biggest developer by market share, said government efforts over the past year to rein in soaring prices were having a severe impact on the market and developers were being squeezed after sales volume in 14 of the country's largest cities halved in September from a year earlier.
A 30 per cent drop in property prices would precipitate a collapse in fixed investment in China and the country's investment-driven economy would experience a so-called hard landing after years of annual growth above 9 per cent, according to UBS economist Wang Tao.
Property investment accounts for more than 20 per cent of total fixed investment in China and UBS estimates almost 30 per cent of final products in the economy are absorbed by the property sector.
"A property-led hard landing scenario is quite likely in the next few years, even though we do not think the property market is about to collapse now," Ms Wang said.
Debt-laden provincial governments in China rely heavily on land sales for revenue and have poured investment into commercial housing projects in recent years.
These local authorities also account for up to 30 per cent of all outstanding bank loans, many of which are collateralised by land and housing developments, so a collapse in the property market could have a devastating knock-on effect on the financial system.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Valadez Killer to be Sentenced
ACLU Sues for What Now?
Chicago is a city of haves and have-nots when it comes to police protection, according to a lawsuit filed Thursday.
The American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois sued in Cook County Circuit Court, saying the city is failing to deploy cops equitably across the city’s neighborhoods.
The number of backlogged 911 calls is unevenly large in neighborhoods with the biggest minority populations, the lawsuit said.
“Disproportionate numbers of delays in 911 calls have a devastating effect on a neighborhood,” said Harvey Grossman, an ACLU attorney.
You get the picture?
And actually, we recall entire platoons of SOS, MSF, TRU, GEU, Area Sat Teams, Gun Teams, and so many undercover narcotics officers on one block we thought it was a class reunion, being deployed in North Lawndale, Austin, Pullman, Englewood, Little Village, Pilsen, Auburn, Bronzeville, ....the list is near endless.
So all of these assets being poured into these neighborhoods and who does the ACLU sue then? Why, they sued US!!! Allegations nearly daily about violating civil rights, home invasions, stop-and-frisk type enforcement.
We can't win for losing.
ZAP!
A man trying to steal copper wire in a Lockport park was killed when a power line fell on him, authorities said this morning.
Emergency personnel called to Dellwood Park at about 9:20 p.m. Wednesday found the man on fire and trapped by power lines, according to Lockport Township Fire Chief David Skoryi.
“No rescue attempt was possible,” he said. “Electricity had charged the ground. You could feel the electricity. You couldn’t get near."
Jumping Jacks
The wildly-popular Jumping Jack program salvaged by Chicago aldermen just three years ago is back on the chopping block — sort of.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s administration plans to maintain the longstanding Chicago tradition of providing free moonwalks to neighborhood festivals and quadruple — to four hours — the time kids at each event get to bounce.
But, to shave $300,000 from the $500,000 annual cost, the perk will be reserved for block parties and other “public events on Chicago streets.”
Private events will be bounced.
Will The Real Left Winger Please Stand Up?
Liberals tout moves to ‘create’ and ‘protect’ jobs
Ontario is moving to “create” and “protect” nearly 1,600 jobs — many engineering positions that could move offshore — by investing in private firms, said Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid.
Ontario's Liberals are definitely not slim, but clearly shady. As I predicted in Clouds Looming Over Ontario, the Liberals would soak money from one set of taxpayers and 'invest' it with another group, all in the name of 'togetherness'. The Liberal economic interventionists are stimulating our economy with prescribed drugs, and in heavy doses.
The problem with these well intended forced hits is that it creates an addiction. We crave and demand the euphoria of getting our entitled thrill of other people's success. We become dependant on Liberals (and sometimes Conservatives) to give us our 'fix'and thus don't look for the real fix. We cry, "we can't maintain jobs on our own, help us Liberals! Take from those with, and give to those without, then we will cheer fairness and togetherness!" Can any left leaning thinker explain this one to me? How is it helping Ontario to undermine the free market by thinking it is the governments responsibility to create jobs? That's like some dude snatching my daughter off our yard only to later say, "oh, I'm sorry, I thought it was my job to parent your child". Absurd. I am responsible to parent my child and I am responsible for my successes and failures. Why do we undermine the principle of personal responsibility with these left policies? Why does the left do such a poor job articulating why they are justified to encroach on our jurisdiction and operate with impunity and domineering authority?
I will further predict that the Ontario middle class will continue to suffer unless the Liberals stop forcing the redistribution pills on us. I sadly see a decrepit, addicted population demanding more from their government.
Addicts. The liberals are turning it's citizens into addicts. Justify your position Liberals. Why do you intervene in the free market and think it's your job to help rescue jobs? It's not. Leave that to the free market, it will produce real and superior results. Sure there may not be any 'quick fixes', but that's okay. You are not our protectors, our providers or our providential helpers. Stop abusing your authority and acting as though you are. And my goodness, if you insist on these endless redistribution-interventions, at least justify the action beyond the 'immediate need' your claiming to meet. It's so anti-intellectual. Will the real left winger please stand up and give some sensible account for these flagrant violations of jurisdiction? What a rant, I think I need a chill pill...but just this once.
