Note to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph: You Have Excellent Insight as to What is Happening and Why, But Please Get a Grip on Reality as to Solutions

Once again, I sadly report that Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph hits the nail on the head as to what is happening, yet cannot hit the broadside of a barn with a shotgun from 15 feet in regards to the solution.

It really pains me to see excellent analysis go straight into the toilet with hopeless proposals to problems at hand.

Please consider Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

These assume that relations between Europe and Greece break down in acrimony, with a full-fledged "stuff-you" default on euro liabilities. It assumes a drachma devaluation of 50pc.

Potential losses for the states, including central banks.

Upper bound of the losses
Billions €

French State
German State
TARGET2 liabilities of the Bank of Greece
Greek sovereign bonds held by the Eurosystem: SMP
Bilateral loans to Greece in the context of the first programme
Guarantees to bonds issued by the EFSF to provide loans to Greece in the context of the second programme
Guarantees to debts issued by the EFSF in the context of its participation to the “Private Sector Involvement” –restructuration of the Greek debt:“sweetener”
Guarantees to debts issued by the EFSF in the context of its participation to the “Private Sector Involvement” –restructuration of the Greek debt: payment of accrued interest
Guarantees to bonds issued by the EFSF to provide loans to Greece in order to buy back sovereign bonds used by banks as collateral to obtain funding from the Eurosystem

Sounds about right.
So far so good. I think a 70% devaluation is about right, but let's not quibble.

Contagion Silliness

This is where Pritchard's analysis starts getting more debatable.

Pritchard writes ..."Needless to say, the real danger is contagion to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, and the deadly linkages between €15 trillion in public and private debt in these countries and the €27 trillion European banking nexus."

This idea of contagion sounds much like the totally discredited "domino" theory in regards to Vietnam. Simply put the rest of Asia did not fall into the hands of communists when the US lost the war in Vietnam.

In this case, Spain will sink or swim on its own merits regardless of what Greece does.

If anything, there will be contagion in the reverse sense. There exists a possibility that Greece recovers "because" it exits the Eurozone (however structural reforms are needed as well).

The ridiculous fear is failure in Greece will lead to a failure in Spain. Clearly both states have failed already.

Mad Hatter Tirade

Pritchard then went off the deep end into a mad hatter tirade.
This nonsense can of course be stopped in ten minutes if the EU:

1) announces that it will equip itself with a real central bank (a lender of last resort) that takes all risk of sovereign default off the table — with conviction and overwhelming force, with no ifs and buts, and no ambushes from the Bundesbank.

2) announces EMU debt-pooling, fiscal union, a joint EMU budget and tax system, and an EMU government as a counterpart for the enhanced the ECB.

The idea that Greece and Spain can be saved by central bank printing "with conviction and overwhelming force, with no ifs and buts" is of course asinine.

Sorry Ambrose, "asinine" is the best word that describes what you propose. Greece and Spain can only be saved if and only if they implement badly-needed structural reforms.

Defaulting on debt which would cause inflation in Greece and Spain (not Germany), may assist recovery, but the 100% necessary condition in both cases is structural reform.

Pritchard then recovers by concluding ...
My sympathies to the German people. This is what your leaders got you into (without asking permission). It was the elemental implication of monetary union.

We at the Telegraph screamed from rooftops in the early 1990s that EMU was a destroyer of nation states, and democracies. So did the brave German professors. Nobody would listen.

My guess is that German citizens will not accept this implication.

As Pritchard suggests, Germany will indeed pay. Mathematically Germany must pay. It's something I have pointed out numerous times over the years.

The problem as Pritchard notes is the flaw in the Eurozone in the first place.

I commend Pritchard for being among the first to point that simple fact out. However, neither Keynesian nor Monetarist nonsense is the cure for anything.

Regrettably, Pritchard keeps attempting to put a square peg into a round hole, and worse yet keeps proposing "asinine" solutions to a fundamental problem.

If Wishes Were Fishes

  • If monetary stimulus worked, the LTRO would have been a spectacular success already. 
  • If monetary stimulus worked, housing in the US would be in full-blown recovery.
  • If monetary stimulus worked, Japan would not have a debt-to-GDP ratio above 200%. 
  • If printing worked, Zimbabwe would have been the greatest country in the world long ago.

It is really sad to see otherwise fine analysis go straight into the toilet with such ridiculous proposals as solutions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


News for factory,Allied Cash Advance,Photography,Beach Water Park,Educational Leadership,Vacation And Travel,Wedding Dress,Family Vacation Packages,Casino and Gambling,Health Insurance,Best Auto Insurance ( BAF ),Web Hosting Professional,Home Design And Remodeling,Information Property For Home,Wireless TV Networking,Business Plan Guide,Educational Guide,Custom Essay Writing Service,Plumber Service And Repair,Property House,Architectural House Plans,Car Auto Services,Computer service and repair,Computer Networking,Business Planning Strategies,Womens Giving,Healthcare and Medical Jobs,Retail Inkjet Solutions,Online Casino Games,Alcohol Drug Treatment,Web Designers,Apollo Amatuer Night,Public School Performance,Kanza Museum,Cap Inter Entereprises Emploi,Culinary Tourism,Business Traveller,Bridal Expo,Container Atlas Architecture,Culinary Tours - Packages and Travel,Dancing Ink Productions,Defend Automotive Group,Real Finance Group,Business Consulting Services,Home Design Audio,Health Projects International,Health Resources,Health Effects of Alcohol,History of education,Vietnam travel guide,Westland Foundation,Lighting Business,Networking Business Professionals,Housing Decoration,Future Business,Health and Beauty Tips,Hotel Cafe and Restaurant,Enhancing Education,Home Improvement Projects,Political Philosophy,Healthy Grieving Process ,Unique Weddings in New Orleans,Art Plus Science ,Advantage Business Media,Mutual Financial Services,Adventure Travel and Holidays,Alternative Medicine Treatments,Web Design and Marketing,Electronic Payment Solutions,Life Success in Business,Devium Car Interiors,Easy Divers Academy,Water Treatment Process,Software Development Company,MSDS Translation Language,Orion International Technologies,Refreshing Summer Wine Guide,Learn Technical Writing,Health Spa and Resort,Creative Book Publishing,Positive Business Mentality,Charter Healthcare,Discount Hotel Rates,United Industries,Warrior Insurance,County Tourism and Vacations,Wedding Ring Jewelry,Studio Design Decorative,Journalism Careers,Gaming Accessories Computing,Business Strategy Consultant,Cefori Technologies Information,Physics and Astronomy,News Fashion,Business Online,Michigan Apartments,Legal Information Institute,Guide Fashion Shipping,Home Insurance Quotes,Web Design Trends,Musical Instruments and Gear,Travel and Leisure,Importance of Education,Auto Financing Loans,Contractor Business Systems,Business Travel,Importance of Sex Education,Education Classroom,Creative Idea Laboratory,Luxury Paradise Vacations,Healthiest Alcoholic Drinks,Sports Betting,Business Environment,Business Directory,Internet Services,Top Styles,Architecture and Design,Discovery Travel and Tourism,Drug Abuse Treatment,Cheap Auto Financing,Business and Technology,Online Trading,Casino Gambling,Easy Online Shopping,Education Games,Social Media Networks,Online Dating,Luxury Honeymoons,Media and Entertainment,Home Decorating Ideas,Insurance Services,Payday Loans Online,Beechwood Travel Guide,Paradise Garden,Business Trends Consulting,Expert School Consulting,Latest Fashion Trends,Alternative Health Care,Technology Trends In Society,Health Technologies Resources,Island Wedding Services,Network Society,Gambling Experts,Medical Insurance Expert,Home Repair and Remodeling,Sexual Health Services,Education Resources,Automotive Solutions,Michigan Trade Associations,Luxury Fashion and Accessories,Theoretical Physics,Financial Advice,Adult Online Dating (Escorts),Pets Health Insurance,Better Homes and Gardens,Avastone Technologies,Discover Student Loans,Sports Authority,Vitamins and Supplements,Business Systems Online,Food Network Recipes,Business and Government,Smart Legal Strategy,Occupational Health Care,Music Education,Online Dating Tips (Expert),Online Marketing Lexikon,Citizens Council Network,Economics and Finance,Fashion Entertainment News,Luxury Travel Destinations,Online Auto Insurance,Home Improvement Loans,Building Business Foundation,Human Resource Consulting,Educational Media pay day loans
life insurance quotes
Credit Loans (finance)
Foreign Auto Parts
Health and Fitness
Drug abuse effects
Destination hotels and resorts
Professional Financial Marketing
Personal Finance
Computers and Technology
Auto Insurance
Real Estate Property
Computer Graphics Technology
Home Improvement
Arts music schools
Online Education Classes
Hotel and Travel
Security development program
Business auto loans
Medical And Public Health Organizations
Land and Homes
Better Health Kids
Engineered Heating
Trade Finance Services
Switzerland Tourism
Casa Travel
Clothing Accessories
University of Technology
Best Law Schools
Marketing Technology
Vacation Tour and Travel
Insurance Agents and Insurance Brokers
Construction Engineering
Healthy Home Economist
Masters Home Improvement
Michigan Web Design
Personal Online Banking
Health Education Foundation
Travel Pack
Real Estate and Home Ideas
Museum Vacations Travel
Free Statistical Software
Blog Free Statistical
Buying and Selling Real Estate
Educational Play
Big Top Business
Alternative Health
smooth skin
Products and Services
Construction Project Management
Northside Car Service
Online Essay Writing
France Health
Europe Program Modernization
European Travel Destinations
Science and Technology Project
Online Store Marketing
Law Society Consulting
Business Networking Company
Motivation to Study
Metropolitan Hotel
Technological Innovation
EAP Business
Travel Guide and Virtual Tours
The Business Partnership
Accessible Accommodation
Entertainment News
Medicines Agency
Carpet Cleaning
International House
VIP Shop
Online Clothing Shop
Institute Education Religion
Ford Escort Team
Shop Engine Part
Computer Hardware
Medical Career
Paris Construction
Professional Translation
Streaming Wizard
Alcoholism and Drug
Medical Laboratory
Commerce Business
Educational Kids Play
Space Education
Home Repair Volunteer
Fashion Talent
Health and Safety Executive
Play Web Games
Travel and Surfing
Property and Estate Agents
Technology Group Solutions
Student Service Center
Construction Industry
Media Center Computer
Teny Fashion
Home Remodeling Services
Inspector Network
Car Rentals
Leader Dogs
Rise Health Systems
Business Strategy Consultant
Personal Life Coaching
Company Business Coaching
Entertainment News
Physics and Astronomy
Science and Technology
Cheap Vacation Packages
World Business Academy
Planets Project
Travel and Leisure
Prevent Drug Abuse
Education Certified
Play Kids Games
Legal Defense Fund
Real Estate Strategies
Isolation Globale
Insurance Coverage Law
Rock Hotel and Resorts
Medical Insurance
Healthy Mind and Body
Marjahaan Autokatsastus
Free Sports Authority
Auto Insurance Coverage
Global Technics
Advitium Manufacturing
Professional Core Education
Special Finance Services
Bergen County Contractors
Great Children's Art
Health Supply Company
Social Media Power
Texas House Restaurant
Carbon Consultant
Carbon Expert
Low Carbon
Reset Carbon
Healthcare Commissioning
Virtual Job Tryouts
Ethos Academy (Education)
Intrinsic Schools
Attorney General
Technology Software
Business Plans
Digital Media
High School Resources
Adult Resources
Gamblers Anonymous
Ecuador Real Estate
Software Development
Festival Fashion
Drugs And Alcohol
Business Intelligence
Food Network Recipes
Journal Human Resources
Games and Technology
Technology Development
Web Resources Express
Payday Loans Bad Credit
Art and Craft
Business and Finance News
Ecological Sciences
Education Resources
Web Design
Music Education
World Resources Institute
Business Health Guide