Nightmare Scenarios for Obama's 2nd Term

Last week I was interviewed by Constantine von Hoffman for a CBS news article regarding economic nightmares for Obama's 2nd term.

Calculated Risk was interviewed as well. His nightmare scenario is war, specifically noting the rise of Golden Dawn.

Eight people were interviewed for the CBS article but the organization was maddening. Specifically, there is no way to see all 8 viewpoints of people interviewed at once. You have to click through pages one at a time. I was curious enough to do it, Calculated Risk gave up after the second click.

In a clear effort to generate clicks, articles like this are an extreme turn-off and actually counterproductive. That no readers emailed me with a link to this article says no one bothered clicking through all the pages.

I talked to von Hoffman about numerous things, only one was mentioned in the article. Many of my points were of the nature of things I think should happen (and would benefit the global economy over the long run if they did), but most economists would disagree.

Mish Nightmare Scenario

  1. Not Addressing the Fiscal Cliff
  2. Breakup of the Eurozone
  3. UK exiting the EU
  4. China Growth falls to Zero Because of Rebalancing
  5. Currency Crisis in Japan
  6. Failure to address pension problems in US
  7. Rise of the Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn Party in Greece Leads to War

I mentioned all of those things and more. The first four are things that I actually believe need to happen (and the sooner the better) to prevent a global  nightmare!

Unfortunately, most economists want to kick the can down the road still more.

For a discussion of the fiscal cliff, please see Misdiagnosing the Fiscal Cliff; Shrill Voices and Economic Nonsense; Tyranny of Balanced Budgets

A breakup of the eurozone is inevitable in my opinion. For a detailed explanation why, please see Spain's Unpleasant Choice: Accept Lower Wages and Still Higher Unemployment, Leave the Euro and Default.The sooner a breakup happens the better. Delays end up like Greece.

In regards to China, please consider "China Rebalancing Has Begun"; What are the Global Implications? Michael Pettis on China Rebalancing, Chinese Price Deflation, and Spain Exit from Euro; Target 2 Revisited.

Note that can-kicking in Greece has led to the rise of the Golden Dawn party. Expect the same to happen in Spain if the agony lasts long enough.

Essentially, my nightmare scenario is more can-kicking exercises until the entire global economy blows up in a currency crisis and radical parties like Golden Dawn gain prominence everywhere, fueling political as well as economic violence.


I had war in the Mideast with spiking oil prices as part of my nightmare scenario that I mentioned to von Hoffman. I simply forgot to mention it when I typed this post up earlier today.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock 


News for factory,Allied Cash Advance,Photography,Beach Water Park,Educational Leadership,Vacation And Travel,Wedding Dress,Family Vacation Packages,Casino and Gambling,Health Insurance,Best Auto Insurance ( BAF ),Web Hosting Professional,Home Design And Remodeling,Information Property For Home,Wireless TV Networking,Business Plan Guide,Educational Guide,Custom Essay Writing Service,Plumber Service And Repair,Property House,Architectural House Plans,Car Auto Services,Computer service and repair,Computer Networking,Business Planning Strategies,Womens Giving,Healthcare and Medical Jobs,Retail Inkjet Solutions,Online Casino Games,Alcohol Drug Treatment,Web Designers,Apollo Amatuer Night,Public School Performance,Kanza Museum,Cap Inter Entereprises Emploi,Culinary Tourism,Business Traveller,Bridal Expo,Container Atlas Architecture,Culinary Tours - Packages and Travel,Dancing Ink Productions,Defend Automotive Group,Real Finance Group,Business Consulting Services,Home Design Audio,Health Projects International,Health Resources,Health Effects of Alcohol,History of education,Vietnam travel guide,Westland Foundation,Lighting Business,Networking Business Professionals,Housing Decoration,Future Business,Health and Beauty Tips,Hotel Cafe and Restaurant,Enhancing Education,Home Improvement Projects,Political Philosophy,Healthy Grieving Process ,Unique Weddings in New Orleans,Art Plus Science ,Advantage Business Media,Mutual Financial Services,Adventure Travel and Holidays,Alternative Medicine Treatments,Web Design and Marketing,Electronic Payment Solutions,Life Success in Business,Devium Car Interiors,Easy Divers Academy,Water Treatment Process,Software Development Company,MSDS Translation Language,Orion International Technologies,Refreshing Summer Wine Guide,Learn Technical Writing,Health Spa and Resort,Creative Book Publishing,Positive Business Mentality,Charter Healthcare,Discount Hotel Rates,United Industries,Warrior Insurance,County Tourism and Vacations,Wedding Ring Jewelry,Studio Design Decorative,Journalism Careers,Gaming Accessories Computing,Business Strategy Consultant,Cefori Technologies Information,Physics and Astronomy,News Fashion,Business Online,Michigan Apartments,Legal Information Institute,Guide Fashion Shipping,Home Insurance Quotes,Web Design Trends,Musical Instruments and Gear,Travel and Leisure,Importance of Education,Auto Financing Loans,Contractor Business Systems,Business Travel,Importance of Sex Education,Education Classroom,Creative Idea Laboratory,Luxury Paradise Vacations,Healthiest Alcoholic Drinks,Sports Betting,Business Environment,Business Directory,Internet Services,Top Styles,Architecture and Design,Discovery Travel and Tourism,Drug Abuse Treatment,Cheap Auto Financing,Business and Technology,Online Trading,Casino Gambling,Easy Online Shopping,Education Games,Social Media Networks,Online Dating,Luxury Honeymoons,Media and Entertainment,Home Decorating Ideas,Insurance Services,Payday Loans Online,Beechwood Travel Guide,Paradise Garden,Business Trends Consulting,Expert School Consulting,Latest Fashion Trends,Alternative Health Care,Technology Trends In Society,Health Technologies Resources,Island Wedding Services,Network Society,Gambling Experts,Medical Insurance Expert,Home Repair and Remodeling,Sexual Health Services,Education Resources,Automotive Solutions,Michigan Trade Associations,Luxury Fashion and Accessories,Theoretical Physics,Financial Advice,Adult Online Dating (Escorts),Pets Health Insurance,Better Homes and Gardens,Avastone Technologies,Discover Student Loans,Sports Authority,Vitamins and Supplements,Business Systems Online,Food Network Recipes,Business and Government,Smart Legal Strategy,Occupational Health Care,Music Education,Online Dating Tips (Expert),Online Marketing Lexikon,Citizens Council Network,Economics and Finance,Fashion Entertainment News,Luxury Travel Destinations,Online Auto Insurance,Home Improvement Loans,Building Business Foundation,Human Resource Consulting,Educational Media pay day loans
life insurance quotes
Credit Loans (finance)
Foreign Auto Parts
Health and Fitness
Drug abuse effects
Destination hotels and resorts
Professional Financial Marketing
Personal Finance
Computers and Technology
Auto Insurance
Real Estate Property
Computer Graphics Technology
Home Improvement
Arts music schools
Online Education Classes
Hotel and Travel
Security development program
Business auto loans
Medical And Public Health Organizations
Land and Homes
Better Health Kids
Engineered Heating
Trade Finance Services
Switzerland Tourism
Casa Travel
Clothing Accessories
University of Technology
Best Law Schools
Marketing Technology
Vacation Tour and Travel
Insurance Agents and Insurance Brokers
Construction Engineering
Healthy Home Economist
Masters Home Improvement
Michigan Web Design
Personal Online Banking
Health Education Foundation
Travel Pack
Real Estate and Home Ideas
Museum Vacations Travel
Free Statistical Software
Blog Free Statistical
Buying and Selling Real Estate
Educational Play
Big Top Business
Alternative Health
smooth skin
Products and Services
Construction Project Management
Northside Car Service
Online Essay Writing
France Health
Europe Program Modernization
European Travel Destinations
Science and Technology Project
Online Store Marketing
Law Society Consulting
Business Networking Company
Motivation to Study
Metropolitan Hotel
Technological Innovation
EAP Business
Travel Guide and Virtual Tours
The Business Partnership
Accessible Accommodation
Entertainment News
Medicines Agency
Carpet Cleaning
International House
VIP Shop
Online Clothing Shop
Institute Education Religion
Ford Escort Team
Shop Engine Part
Computer Hardware
Medical Career
Paris Construction
Professional Translation
Streaming Wizard
Alcoholism and Drug
Medical Laboratory
Commerce Business
Educational Kids Play
Space Education
Home Repair Volunteer
Fashion Talent
Health and Safety Executive
Play Web Games
Travel and Surfing
Property and Estate Agents
Technology Group Solutions
Student Service Center
Construction Industry
Media Center Computer
Teny Fashion
Home Remodeling Services
Inspector Network
Car Rentals
Leader Dogs
Rise Health Systems
Business Strategy Consultant
Personal Life Coaching
Company Business Coaching
Entertainment News
Physics and Astronomy
Science and Technology
Cheap Vacation Packages
World Business Academy
Planets Project
Travel and Leisure
Prevent Drug Abuse
Education Certified
Play Kids Games
Legal Defense Fund
Real Estate Strategies
Isolation Globale
Insurance Coverage Law
Rock Hotel and Resorts
Medical Insurance
Healthy Mind and Body
Marjahaan Autokatsastus
Free Sports Authority
Auto Insurance Coverage
Global Technics
Advitium Manufacturing
Professional Core Education
Special Finance Services
Bergen County Contractors
Great Children's Art
Health Supply Company
Social Media Power
Texas House Restaurant
Carbon Consultant
Carbon Expert
Low Carbon
Reset Carbon
Healthcare Commissioning
Virtual Job Tryouts
Ethos Academy (Education)
Intrinsic Schools
Attorney General
Technology Software
Business Plans
Digital Media
High School Resources
Adult Resources
Gamblers Anonymous
Ecuador Real Estate
Software Development
Festival Fashion
Drugs And Alcohol
Business Intelligence
Food Network Recipes
Journal Human Resources
Games and Technology
Technology Development
Web Resources Express
Payday Loans Bad Credit
Art and Craft
Business and Finance News
Ecological Sciences
Education Resources
Web Design
Music Education
World Resources Institute
Business Health Guide