Trim Tabs Fearless Forecast: US Payrolls +45,000 Jobs; Analysis of Jobs, Wages, GDP, Weekly Claims, Housing; Forced Lifestyle Changes; Boomer Drag on GDP Trends

Last month Trim Tabs estimated December payroll growth was 38,000. ADP estimated payroll growth at 325,000. I estimated +78,000.

The BLS reported +200,000.

For details, please see Nonfarm Payroll +200,000 ; Labor Force Drops Another 50,000 ; Those Not in Labor Force Rises by 194,000 ; Unemployment Rate 8.5%

Was this a miss by Trim Tabs? ADP? Me?

Here is the correct answer, whether or not you believe the BLS: I don't know and no one else does either.

Seasonal Adjustments

The BLS numbers are subject to massive revisions. Literally millions of jobs are revised away (or added) months, even years later. December and January are typically the hardest months to estimate, subject to huge seasonal adjustments and later revisions.

Economic Turning Points

Economic turning points compound the problem greatly. The BLS readily admits its birth-death adjustments are hugely wrong at turning points.

Are we at an economic turning point now? I think so, and a turn in supporting data is all I need to convince me. If so, the BLS can be off on its numbers by a great deal.

Trim Tabs Fearless Forecast

The following weekly macro analysis and forecast (via email) is from Madeline Schnapp, Director, Macroeconomic Research, Trim Tabs. The above title is mine.

Jobs: Based on our analysis of real-time income tax withholdings, we estimate that the U.S. economy added only 45,000 jobs in January, little changed from 38,000 in December.

Wages: While the BEA reports that wages and salaries increased 3.8% in December, TrimTabs real-time analysis shows that wages and salaries rose only 2.9%. When TrimTabs data is used to replace the BEA wage and salary estimates, disposable income falls by $45 billion and the savings rate declines from 4.0% to 3.6%.

Unemployment Benefits: Expiring emergency and extended unemployment insurance benefits will likely leave Americans with as much as $25 to $50 billion less cash in 2012.

Bonuses: Wage and salary growth net of inflation weakened to -2.1% y-o-y in January from -0.5% y-o-y in December. While much of the January decline is due to lower bonuses this season relative to last, wage growth is still considerably weaker than it was in December.

Weekly Claims: Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 21,000 in the latest reporting week, coincident with the decline in seasonal adjustment factors. Last week’s increase suggest recent declines were likely due to seasonal adjustments rather than a significant improvement in the labor market.

GDP: Last week’s preliminary Q4 2011 GDP growth estimate of 2.8% was probably overstated. The price deflator for Q4 2011 was just 0.39%, down from 2.56% in Q3 2011. Also, two-thirds of growth in Q4 2011 was due to a swing in inventories from -1.35% in Q3 2011 to +1.94% in Q4 2011, which is likely to be reversed in Q1 2012. We believe the slowdown in GDP growth from 3.03% in 2010 to 1.72% in 2011 provides a better sense of the trend.

Housing: The housing market is likely to remain weak despite near record low mortgage rates because 23.4 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed, 10.1 million mortgage borrowers are underwater, and 6.2 million mortgage borrowers are delinquent.

Synopsis: We see nothing on the horizon to knock the economy out of its slow growth mode. The economy faces substantial headwinds from negative real wage and salary growth, high unemployment, waning government support, expiring tax incentives, contracting state and local governments, elevated fuel prices, and a sluggish housing market. The economy is highly vulnerable to economic shocks from overseas.

Commentary

Workers in the U.S. are faring much worse than U.S. government statistics indicate. The personal income report released Monday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that wages and salaries rose 3.8% y-o-y in December, while our analysis based on withholdings indicates that wages and salaries rose only 2.9% y-o-y.

We believe the BEA is missing the slowdown in wages and salaries because it relies on lagged data to compute current trends. The BEA derives its results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) which it receives a quarter in arrears. The BEA’s wage and salary data for December is derived from QCEW data from Q2 2011, when the economy was picking up steam in response to massive monetary stimulus.

To compute current wages and salaries, the BEA interpolates and extrapolates the lagged QCEW data forward, using inputs from the BLS to make necessary adjustments. Unfortunately, this methodology misses rapid changes in wages and salaries that occur when the economy moves from expansion to contraction or vice versa.

The BEA is overstating employment growth due to distortions caused by huge seasonal adjustments to the BLS employment data. The BEA will probably continue to overstate wages and salaries, personal income, and the savings rate for the period from October through December until April 2012, when QCEW data from Q4 2011 will be available.

Unemployment Insurance and Weekly Claims

Here are two of the many charts from the report.

Weekly Trend of Claims



click on chart for sharper image

Trim Tabs writes ... "At its peak in February 2010, the federal government’s emergency and extended unemployment benefits programs provided assistance to 6.0 million people. Since then, the number of people receiving benefits has steadily declined, and they totaled only 3.4 million as of the week ended January 6. Since only 2.2 million jobs have been created since the recession started in December 2007—fewer than the number of people no longer receiving benefits—it is likely that 1.0 million or more people now lack both benefits and jobs."

Emphasis added.

Involuntary Retirement

I think it is much worse than that. Technically it could be as high as 3.5 million (assuming no one with expiring benefits ever found a job). It would only be a million or so, if all of them did. Neither of those extremes is likely so I will make a rough guess that 2 million lost benefits and still have no job.

However, many of those with expiring benefits likely took what I call "forced retirement". They wanted a job, needed a job, yet had no job and no prospects of a job. To survive, those of sufficient age retired involuntarily to collect social security benefits.

Weekly Trend of Benefits



Trim Tabs writes "According to the BEA, the loss of income from extended and emergency unemployment insurance benefits has amounted to $57 billion since January 2010. In the past twelve months, the loss of income amounted to $23 billion, which is equal to about 13.4% of the estimated $188 billion increase in wages and salaries in 2011. In 2012, we estimate that expiring benefits will reduce incomes by approximately $25 to $50 billion.".

It's safe to assume the loss of income is substantial, and it's about to get "more substantial". However, one does need to factor in involuntary retirement and subsequent social security payments.

Social Security Benefits



Social Security Benefits Detail



That's quite a jump. Boomer demographics is clearly at play. But how much is "involuntary retirement"?

Regardless, one thing is certain: That exponential trend is not remotely sustainable.

Forced Lifestyle Changes

One final point about social security: Retirement income does not match employment income. The presumption is "it doesn't have to".

Just how valid is that presumption? Even if it is valid, how many have sufficient savings to retire with the same lifestyle?

For someone with a mortgage and underwater on their house with rising food and energy costs, the presumption is not likely to be correct and/or savings are not likely to be sufficient.

The obvious result is a "forced lifestyle change" and less spending.

This boomer drag on GDP trends is enormous, yet few see it.

Moreover, interests rates of 0% on CDs does not help any. Those on fixed income have been clobbered by Fed policies. I have talked about this numerous times but here is a quick recap of a pair of recent articles.

• Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"
 
• Premature Dollar Obituaries and Mainstream Economists' Monetary Insanity; Keynes-Inspired Great Depression; Lessons Not Learned

Recession Rationale Stacked Up

Recent earnings reports have contained numerous misses, economic data has been generally weak in the US and very weak in Europe, and the Fed did not pledge to hold interest rates to zero through the end of 2014 for no reason.

Recession rationale is stacked up, we just need coincident indicators to confirm.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Suburban Props

We can totally believe this of Rahm and the GMac crew. First, Channel 5 has this:

• Police chiefs from dozens of surrounding communities met at the Chicago Police Department headquarters today, but none of them wanted to talk about the meeting.

And why wouldn't they want to talk? A commentator has an idea:

• Talked to a boss at a suburban Department. He was not happy with the Chicago Police Department. OK. That was a huge understatement. He is PISSED!
  
  It seems that Chicago called a bunch of top bosses from other departments to 35th street for a big informational meeting on the G8. Top secret information, need to know stuff, except, they didn't tell them anything that wasn't in the papers.
  
  The Chiefs were then paraded past the Channel 7 cameras that were "tipped off" about the "secret meeting" the suburban Departments were called to. Since Channel 7 is in the bag for Chicago, you didn't have to be a Chief to figure out you had been used as a prop. Are we getting that desperate already? Way to piss off our suburban brothers with that transparent nonsense.

Dog and pony show.

So when are they calling in the National Guard big wigs to parade them in front of the cameras?

Officers Sue Slum Times

Interesting:

• Five Chicago police officers have sued the Chicago Sun-Times over publishing photo lineups that included names and faces of the officers standing next to Richard J. Vanecko, former Mayor Richard Daley's nephew.
  
  The federal lawsuit alleges that the newspaper violated the officers' privacy by disclosing personal information on their drivers' licenses, such as height and weight. The Sun-Times obtained the information from the Illinois Secretary of State's motor vehicle records, the complaint said.
  
  [...] Police officers are commonly used in lineups, according to the suit. But the complaint alleges that the publication of the personal information violated the Drivers Privacy Protection Act and that the officers are entitled to monetary damages.

So if we're understanding this, the lawsuit isn't based on the fact that the officers were identified in the paper, it's the way the Slum Times obtained the info via government sources and then publicized it?

We'd dearly love to see Vanecko in jail, and so would the Sun Times. But they don't seem to care about collateral damage.

Another Black Eye

Convicted:

• A former veteran Chicago police officer whom prosecutors alleged had joined ranks with one of his top street informants to kidnap and rob drug dealers was convicted today in federal court of conspiracy to distribute cocaine.

  The jury failed to reach a decision on a racketeering count against Glenn Lewellen, 55, who worked as a Chicago cop from 1986 to 2002.

Off the job for almost ten years, but still going to paint everyone with the corruption brush.

Home Prices Drop Again

The nonexistent Obama economy continues to crater:

• Home prices in the Chicago area fell in November for the third consecutive month, putting them back at May 2001 levels, according to a widely watched index released Tuesday.
  
  The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index found that in November, housing prices in the Chicago area fell 3.4 percent from October and were down 5.9 percent from a year ago. Other than Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa and Las Vegas, Chicago had the greatest year-over year price decline of the 20 markets studied.
  
  "I can only imagine how frustrating this market is for Chicago," said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. "The current rate of price depreciation is on par with the darkest period of the housing recession in Chicago, from November 2008 to March 2009, when monthly price depreciation averaged 2.4 percent. It's fundamentally a reflection that housing supply in the (metropolitan area) far outstrips housing demand."

And with homicide numbers climbing, Rahm raising fees and fines and the upcoming G8 disaster looming, Chicago is definitely at the top of everyone's lists for "places to move to," right?

Gun Stops Crime

But not in Illinois and certainly not in Chicago:

• Milwaukee police say an armed robbery attempt at a grocery store ended when a customer opened fire.
  
  A man armed with a shotgun entered an Aldi store in the north side of the city about 7 p.m. Monday and tried to rob the store, authorities say.
  
  A customer pulled out a gun and fired at the suspect, who fled without any cash or merchandise. None of the employees or customers were injured.
  
  Police say they're investigating whether a 20-year-old man who arrived at a local hospital with a gunshot wound is connected to the robbery attempt.

And once again, we're surprised the Chicago media (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chicago Machine/Illinois Combine) allowed this to see the light of day.

Speed Camera Backlash

The voters aren't happy and they're letting Quinn know it:

• Gov. Pat Quinn has a week to decide whether to put the brakes on a bill allowing Chicago to install speed-enforcement cameras — and so far the public feedback he’s received is overwhelmingly opposed to the measure.

  Mayor Rahm Emanuel has spent months lobbying Quinn to sign the bill authorizing speed cameras near city schools and parks.

  It turns out the public has been doing its own lobbying.

  The governor has received 224 phone calls, letters or on-line communications on the bill, and more than 91 percent were against the new law, according to Quinn’s office.

  Emanuel shrugged off the negative response.

  “All the data show that, when you put the cameras in, people comply. It’s the right thing to do. I didn’t think it was going to be popular. The question is, can I save lives?” the mayor said Monday.

Save lives? Is "for the children" out this week?

• Emanuel said he understands the controversy generated by mailing $100 tickets to motorists caught on camera speeding down neighborhood streets.

  But the mayor said his police superintendent and schools CEO came to him and said Chicago has a speeding problem “unique from other cities” that’s endangering kids.

  “If popularity or perception were my only issue, I’d be sitting in my office doing a lot of nothing,” he said.

  “That’s not what I’m worried about. My goal is the safety of our children.”

Oh wait, there it is. Thank goodness Rahm the Humanitarian is thinking of the children because you know that no one else is. Not anyone at all.

• For the umpteenth time, the mayor denied that he views speed cameras as a cash cow for the city. That is precisely what red-light cameras have become.

It is? Oh yeah. It is.

In any event, cameras of all types contribute nothing to safety, provide only the illusion of police presence, exist solely to generate revenue and replace officers, thereby decreasing safety in a never ending spiral that seems to end in something looking like Detroit.

Greece Prime Minister Calls "Crisis Meeting" Attacks EU, IMF; Does Germany Want a Deal?

Things are going so well in Greece (just one step away from a deal for weeks on end), that Greek officials attack EU and IMF as debt talks stall

Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country's mounting debts appeared to stall.

Prime minister Lucas Papademos told aides that a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds.

Papademos and his team of aides returned in sombre mood on Tuesday from a round of talks in Brussels and Frankfurt at the offices of the European Central Bank (ECB), despite relief that a German proposal to install an EU commissioner in Athens, with special oversight of Greek finances, had been quashed.

On the negotiations over the bailout funds, Greek MPs have objected to demands by the troika for further wage cuts and reductions in the minimum wage.

"The troika doesn't appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses," said the government aide. "No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we're very worried."

Greece Must Pledge Tough Reforms for Debt Swap Deal

CNBC reports Greece Must Pledge Tough Reforms for Debt Swap Deal

"The debt swap agreement is ready, but it will not be announced before the end of the week and until the government has made certain commitments on reforms, labour issues and the pension system," said the banker, who declined to be named.

"By delaying the debt swap, European partners are putting pressure on the government and political leaders to make certain commitments."

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos on Tuesday confirmed that Athens was aiming for a definitive agreement on the debt swap by the end of this week -- roughly the same time it expects to conclude talks with lenders in Athens on its second bailout.

Papademos acknowledged that the main sticking points in talks with the so-called "troika" of foreign lenders - the European Central Bank, the EU and the International Monetary Fund -- revolved around spending cuts and labour reform.

On top of biting austerity measures already taken that regularly bring droves of angry protesters onto the streets, Greece's lenders have demanded it make extra spending cuts worth 1 percent of GDP - or just above 2 billion euros - this year, including big cuts in defence and health spending.

In a sign of the challenges the government faces in pushing those through, a Greek union official said the country's major unions were gearing up for more anti-austerity protests next month after an early grace period for Papademos's government.

The prospect of elections as early as April has further complicated the talks, with political leaders in Papademos's national unity coalition eager to distance themselves from any cuts that herald more pain for ordinary Greeks.

Increasingly exasperated by Athens' failure to live up to pledges on the reform front, European partners have demanded all Greek parties commit to measures agreed under the bailout irrespective of who wins the next elections.

Without a deal and a subsequent release of funds from the bailout plan, Greece would sink into an uncontrolled default that risks spreading turmoil across the euro zone and tipping the global economy back into recession.

Greece is Irrelevant

Let's dispense with the nonsense first. The world economy will not go into a recession over Greece. However, it is highly likely to go into recession regardless of what Greece does. At this point, Greece is irrelevant.

Pertinent Questions

1. Does Germany want a deal?
2. Is the proposal by Germany for Greece to cede budget sovereignty a ploy to win Greek concessions?
3. Will Germany be overridden if it does not want a deal?

The answer to the first question should be clear. Germany has had enough. I wrote about it on Friday in Prepare for Greece to Leave Eurozone; German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty Over Tax and Spending Decisions to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"; Text of the German Demands .

German and IMF demands make meaningless any hint of a deal "soon". Germany has signaled it has had enough and will not throw another 130 billion euros down a rathole. The IMF signaled the same thing but not as emphatically.

Thus, if Germany does not back down and the IMF insists on a 10-page list of “prior actions” a Greek exit from the Eurozone is at hand.

Look for a "bank holiday" in Greece soon.

France Does Want a Deal

Complicating matters for Merkel, France does want a deal, and Sarkozy stepped in to support Greece.

Is this a game by Germany to extract concessions? I do not think so. This goes far beyond hardball. People do not understand the pressure on Merkel within her own party to end these nonsensical bailouts.

Merkel is fighting for her political life. She has no wining plays. In chess terms, she is in a Zugzwang position. Please see Political Zugzwang for a discussion of 4 losing options Merkel faces.

I believe she selected the best one from her perspective: Let Greece go, and fight another day.

Will Germany be Overridden?

The only question of relevance is "Will Germany be Overridden?"

If the EMU and EU leaders know what is good for them, they can take some pressure off Germany, by making demands so great that Greece will not accept them.

That may or may not be the state of the current game, but it sure is a possibility that explains a lot of things, especially the never-ending announcements that a "deal is at hand" and today's declaration of an emergency meeting by Papademos.

Insisting that "all Greek parties commit to measures agreed under the bailout irrespective of who wins the next elections" is an extremely bitter pill, especially given the demands Germany forced on Greece.

Does Germany want Greece to comply with those demands? I highly doubt it. Will Greece comply? I do not know.

Merkel's actions strongly suggest she is rooting this deal collapses in spite of obstacles by placed by Sarkozy who clearly does want a deal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Cameron Announces "Open Door" Policy Welcoming French Banks if France Start Tobin Tax

In a move sure to raise the ire of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron says French banks would come to Britain to avoid tax.

In comments aimed squarely at Nicolas Sarkozy after the French president reportedly criticised British industry, Cameron said the concept of the tax at a time of economic difficulty was "mad" and "extraordinary".

"The European Commissioner has told us this would cost Europe half a million jobs. Now when we're all fighting for jobs and for growth, to do something that would cost so many jobs does seem to me to be extraordinary.

"And in the spirit of this healthy competition with France, if France goes for a financial transactions tax then the door will be open and we'll be able to welcome many more French banks, businesses and others to the UK.

In a televised speech on Sunday, Sarkozy announced plans to introduce a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions to come into effect from August this year in France.

He said in the same speech that Britain had no industry left, but while the British press played up the French president's comments, Cameron played down suggestions of a rift.

Relations have been stormy between the two in recent months.

In December when Cameron criticised the eurozone's efforts to tackle its debt crisis, Sarkozy reportedly snapped that -- as Britain is not part of the single currency -- Cameron should shut up.

Open Feud

This is not a rift, it's an open feud. The only reason it's not bigger is Cameron would rather deal with Sarkozy than Sarkozy's challenger François Hollande.

Note that Hollande also wants a financial transaction tax. For further details please see Hollande Vows to Tax the Rich, Take Pay Cut; Sarkozy Promises German-Style Reforms; Merkel Cannot Save Sarkozy, But She Can Hurt Herself Trying

Transaction Tax a Bad Idea

Rest assured the Tobin Tax is a bad idea. I made the case in Why the Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea; Sweden's Experience With the Tax; Details of Sarkozy's Proposed Tax; Sarkozy Wants to "Provoke a Shock"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Privatizing of Gains and Socializing of Losses; You Want the News? From Where?

I am a fan of Michael Hudson. I was pleasantly surprised to see him on Capital Accounts with Lauren Lyster a few days ago.



Capital Account is produced by RT. That stands for Russia Today. I have numerous emails criticizing me for being on "Russia TV".

Let's take a look at what Wikepedia says about RT.

RT is the second most-watched foreign news channel in the United States, after BBC News. By March 2010, its videos had garnered more than 83 million views on YouTube and has also set a TV News Channel record after exceeding a view count on YouTube of half a billion.

RT broadcasts from its headquarters in Moscow and its studio in Washington, DC, and also has bureaux in Miami, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Delhi and Tel Aviv.

In the United States, the channel is available to digital customers of Time-Warner Cable in New York and New Jersey on channel 135 (channel 196 in upstate New York), in Los Angeles and the desert cities on channel 236, and in San Diego and North County on channel 222. Digital customers of Comcast can receive the channel in Chicago on channel 103, and in Washington, D.C. on channel 274. Digital subscribers to Buckeye CableSystem can receive the channel in Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michigan on channel 266. The channel is also available in the Washington, D.C. area via Cox (channel 474), RCN (channel 33), and Verizon FIOS (channel 455).

Last week RT interviewed Mohamed A. El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO. They also interviewed me. More recently they interviewed Michael Hudson.

Alternate Sites vs. Mainstream Media

Most of the mainstream sites do one of three things (over and over and over).

1. Interview those who manage the most money
2. Interview those with bullish forecasts
3. Interview those with the latest "hot hand" about to flame out

Reflection on News vs. Opinions

Please consider Rupert Murdoch

In an era of media empires, Rupert Murdoch, the Australian-born chairman and controlling shareholder of News Corporation, is perhaps the preeminent global media magnate.

The company, which owns Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and the 20th Century Fox film studio, among other assets, is one of the world’s largest media conglomerates.

In the worlds of politics as well as media, Mr. Murdoch has been one of the most influential figures of our time, and nowhere more so than in Britain, where he made his mark in newspapers.

But in July 2011, he and his company were engulfed in an explosive scandal involving the hacking of public figures’ telephone messages by journalists at News of the World, another British newspaper owned by News Corporation. The firestorm was set off by the revelation that the paper had deleted voice mail messages from the cellphone of a 13-year-old girl who was abducted and murdered in 2002, a move that had added to vain hopes that she was still alive.

In the wake of the furor, Mr. Murdoch closed down News of the World, saw two former editors of the paper arrested, accepted the resignation of Les Hinton, one of his closest associates, and abandoned what would have been the biggest deal of his career, the $12 billion takeover of Britain’s biggest pay television company, British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB). He also bore the brunt of an outcry from the public and Parliament, as politicians of all parties who had long chafed under the need to win his support lashed out.

On July 19, Mr. Murdoch was questioned by a Parliamentary committee. In his testimony, he said that he was deeply sorry about the revelations of widespread unethical practices at his British newspapers, that he knew little or nothing about them and that he had not tried to cover them up. While defending his company against the accusations accompanying the scandal, Mr. Murdoch insisted that he had the backing of News Corporation’s board and would stay on as its chief executive for the foreseeable future.

News vs. Opinion

If you watch Fox News, rest assured it has a general overall spin that is approved by Rupert Murdoch.

Fox News will toss an occasional bone to Ron Paul, primarily from Judge Napolitano. I suspect it is out of necessity of hoping to appear balanced.

Much of what appears on Fox News belongs on "Reality TV" not news stations.

Understanding Bias

When someone reads my blog they understand what they see is "my opinion". When someone listens to Fox News many do not realize they are not getting facts, they are getting "political opinions" disguised as the news.

The Fox news slant is Republican, anti-Paul, pro-warmongering.
The Financial news sites are very biased towards "economic cheerleading".

Those who want something else turn to blogs like Calculated Risk, the Big Picture, Zero Hedge, Max Keiser etc.

Please see CNBC's Best Alternative Financial Websites; Strategist News' Best Business Blogs 2011; Business Blogs vs. Financial Blogs for further discussion of alternative sites.

Impossible Not to be Biased

It is impossible to not be biased, but as least everyone understands the alternative sites generally offer commentary that comes from the heart, not from robots hired to say and do exactly what the media giants want.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Euro Area Unemployment Rate Up 0.2 Percentage Points to 10.4%; 8th Consecutive Monthly Rise; Further Deterioration Coming; Country-by-Country Comparison; Expect Germany to Turn for the Worse

Courtesy of a Barclays Capital email here are the latest unemployment numbers in Europe.

Euro Area: +0.2 to 10.4% based on slight upward revisions in November, September, August. This was the 8th consecutive rise.

• Austria 4.1% unchanged
• Belgium: 7.2% unchanged
• Finland 7.6% unchanged
• France 9.9% +0.1
• Germany: 5.5% -.1
• Italy 8.9% +0.1
• Ireland 14.5% +0.1
• Netherlands 4.9% unchanged
• Portugal 13.6% +0.4
• Slovakia: 13.4% -.1 to
• Spain 22.9% unchanged

Quarterly Perspective

From a quarterly perspective, the unemployment rate in Germany fell 0.2pp to 5.6% in Q4 (from Q3 - and -1.1pp from a year ago). Following the same trend, in Ireland, it has edged down from 14.5% to 14.4%.

France's rose by another 0.1pp in Q4 11 to 9.8% after Q3 11 and is just 0.1pp above the 9.7% Q4 10 level; Italy's rose 3 tenths in Q4 11 to 8.7%, now 0.5pp above Q4 10.

In the last quarter of the year, the situation in Portugal worsened particularly quickly as the unemployment rate rose 0.6pp to 13.3%, 1pp above Q4 10. In Spain, the situation deteriorated even quicker as the unemployment rate rose 7 tenths to 22.8% in Q4 11, 2.4pp above Q4 10 print.

Hiring Intentions



Barclays comments "We find that the overall picture is fairly negative and that it will not get any better in the short run. We expect the unemployment rate in the euro area to continue increasing - possibly at a faster pace - and we think it is more likely to stabilise in 2013 than in 2012."

Germany Unlikely to Keep the Boat Afloat

Barclays says Germany Unlikely to Keep the Boat Afloat

Germany is the only country among the main countries whose sentiment on future employment is levelling off at such high levels. This bodes well for the future performance of its economy, on top of its strong fiscal position.

Bringing France, Italy and Spain into the picture, we believe that the gap between Germany and the rest of the euro area should increase. France's labour market is faltering badly, while those of Italy and Spain, while stabilising at low levels, have leeway to fall further due to the likely additional fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, although it has a c.30% weighting of euro area GDP, Germany won't be able to generate a strong enough positive loop to offset the negative trends at play within its euro area partners, we believe.

As a result, we expect the euro area unemployment rate to continue trending higher. Aside of a likely rise to 10.4% in the December print (to be released tomorrow), which would take the Q4 reading to 10.3%, up 0.2pp from Q3, we believe that the unemployment rate could reach 11.3% in Q4 12, only stabilising at the beginning of 2013.

Our hiring intentions index in the euro area has continued to deteriorate in January, albeit at the most modest pace since May 2011 (the beginning of the drop). It is now in negative territory for the second month in a row, at -0.2, the lowest level since August 2010. At the sector level, divergences were limited. The retail sector dropped the most by -0.1 pts, while the overall services index (normalised, 3mma) remained unchanged.

Expect Germany to Turn for the Worse

Like Barclays, I expect the European picture to deteriorate.

Unlike Barclays, I expect a dramatic reversal in Germany. The German export machine cannot keep humming mightily along with a slowdown in China and the huge recession that is going to hit Europe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

CNBC's Best Alternative Financial Websites; Strategist News' Best Business Blogs 2011; Business Blogs vs. Financial Blogs

Best Business Blogs 2011

Strategist News presents the Best Business Blogs 2011

This is our third year publishing this ranking. The business blogs field is getting more competitive than ever! Seth Godin continues to dominate the business blogosphere, while Guy Kawasaki and Robert Scoble still rule.

This year we made a major change to our methodology. From this year on, we will only include standalone blogs of individuals. We have excluded all companies, newspapers, brands and groups. Why did we do this? Because we want to celebrate the individual writers. Not corporations. We do not want to be influenced by business models or advertising to skew the results. We just want to rank the best writing, period. So here they are…

Business Blogs vs. Financial Blogs

I came in 14th on the "business blog" list, but have to admit that I never heard of most of the sites selected by Strategist News.

Then again,  the concept of "business blogs" encompasses a broad range of categories including  marketing, careers, work finance, technology, small business, entrepreneurship, personal finance, microfinance, project management, and numerous other categories.

The categories are so broad, I am pleased to be on the list at all. Calculated Risk and Barry Ritholtz (Big Picture) were also on the list, in well-deserved positions of 5 and 8 respectively.

For those not familiar with the columns "Alexa Rank" and "Google Page Rank" in the above link, the general idea is the lower the Alexa number the better, the higher the Google Page Rank Number the better. It is very tough for economic blogs to do better than a "6" in Google Page Rank.

There is much controversy over Alexa and I pay scant attention to it other than occasional curiosity. Certainly, popularity based on those who have an Alexa toolbar installed is skewed at best.

Best Alternative Financial Websites

CNBC has an interesting 20-page slideshow on The Best Alternative Financial Blogs.

Today's Best Money Blogs

So what are the best alternative finance and economic blogs out there?

To assemble our list, we polled our friends, our sources, and our followers on Twitter. We excluded many of the sites we really enjoy because they are associated with major media organizations. So no Felix Salmon, FT Alphaville, or DealBook.

These are the sites that have struck out on their own, untethered to the “mainstream media.” Some of them — like Business Insider or Minyanville — have become so successful that we almost disqualified them as being too mainstream.

On our list you’ll find some representatives of the old school, some of the new school, and hopefully a few that are new to you. There are liberal fraud-busters, Austrian economics free-marketeers, and jaded market cynics on our list.

And now, here’s the best of the web for 2012.

By John Carney
Posted 27 January 2012

In contrast to the Business Blog list, I  have heard of nearly every blog on CNBC's Alternative Financial Website list.


20 Page Slideshow of Best Alternative Blogs

1. The first slide is the above block quoted (indented)  text.
2. DealBreaker;
3. Business Insider
4. Zero Hedge
5. The Money Illusion
6. Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
7. Credit Writedowns
8. Of Two Minds
9. Naked Capitalism
10. The Big Picture
11. Calculated Risk
12. The Reformed Broker
13. The Epicurean Dealmaker
14. Pragmatic Capitalism
15. Economonitor's Edward Hugh
16. Ludwig von Mises Institute
17. Minyanville
18. Abnormal Returns
19. Distressed Debt Investing
20. Slideshow Replay

Each page has a brief discussion about the website chosen. I am Page 6 on CNBC's List with this description and image.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

For as long as anyone can remember, Michael Shedlock’s website has been a must-read. When many people were predicting runaway inflation and a declining dollar, “Mish” correctly called deflation and the end to the long “flight from the dollar.”

I did recognize nearly every name on the above list and am pleased with that image and description for four reasons.

1. My blog was cited as a "must read".
 
2. I am a deflationist (defined in terms of credit, not necessarily prices) and a gold advocate, as well. The image shown references gold. People still have a misconception that all deflationists hate gold. People still point to rising oil prices as if that proved there was inflation. As I have pointed out many times, it's all in the definition. Bernanke certainly has not been able to stimulate credit and that is why the recovery is extremely weak in terms of GDP and job creation.
 
3. "Fool in the Shower" is an article written by Caroline Baum, my favorite Bloomberg columnist. I cite Bloomberg more than any other news source for my numbers. I then provide my viewpoint (frequently different) as to what the numbers really mean.
 
4. Steen Jakobsen is the chief economist for Saxo Bank in Denmark and we see many things much alike. I have recently shared many emails from Steen.

Missing From the List

Some very noteworthy alternative sites are missing from the list. Here are some of them in alphabetical order.

• Acting Man
• Automatic Earth
• Contrary Investor
• Chris Martenson
• Dollar Collapse
• Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
• Financial Sense
• Jesse's Café Américain
• Max Keiser
• ML-Implode
• Safe Haven

Apologies offered in advance to anyone I missed.

Other Financial Citations

New York Times: NYT 10th Annual Year in Ideas - #1 Idea of the Year 'Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics'

Time Magazine: Best 25 Financial Blogs

Bloomberg: Financial Blogs: The Best of the Bunch

It is an honor to be named on so many lists.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Exempts Quitting?

Two rumors:

• Cmdr. Hargensheimer (spelling?), unhappy at being moved from Youth to 022, dropped his papers to leave;
• Cmdr. McNaughton, unhappy at being moved from 016 to 008, put in his papers to leave in short order.

Anyone have info?

Ouch

That tingles!

• A Marquette Park neighborhood man is expected to appear in court later today after he was accused of wresting a Taser from a Chicago police officer and using it on him Sunday night during a struggle on the city's Southwest Side, police said.

  The incident began with officers attempting to interview Dashawn James, 19, because they thought he had violated curfew in the 6500 block of South California Avenue, according to police.

  A fight broke out after officers followed James, who fled and became "combative," punching two officers and gaining control of one of their Tasers, according to a police report.

  James "deployed" the Taser several times striking an officer’s arm, according to the report. Another officer used his Taser to subdue James, who was arrested at about 10:40 p.m. Sunday.

Be careful out there.

German Retail Sales "Unexpectedly" Fall in December, November Revised Lower; Unexpected by Whom?

I am amused to report German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall in December

German retail sales fell unexpectedly in December, dropping 1.4 percent on a monthly basis in real terms, preliminary data showed on Tuesday.

The notoriously volatile indicator was down 0.9 percent on an annual basis. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales to rise 0.9 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year.

November retail sales were revised downwards to a fall of 1.0 percent on the month, from a previously reported decrease of 0.9 percent. On an annual basis sales were also revised downwards to a gain of 0.9 percent from 1.4 percent.

More Amusement

I am even more amused by Barclays Capital Research (via email) that suggests "household consumption to be a major GDP growth driver in 2012."

German retail sales (real, sa, excluding cars/petrol) unexpectedly fell again in December, by 1.4% m/m (-0.9% y/y), according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The weak November figure was slightly revised down to -1.0% from a previously reported -0.9%. On average, retail sales in Q4 2011 were 0.7% below their level in Q3 2011 in real terms, indicating a weak performance of household consumption in last year's final quarter.

In nominal terms, food and non-food sales both rose 0.3% (y/y), but food sales fared significantly worse in real terms (-1.7%, y/y) than non-food items (-0.5% y/y), reflecting higher food prices. Among non-food items, sales of home furnishings and fixtures and building materials stood out, growing by 3.6% in real terms (y/y), indicating continued strong activity in residential construction in Germany.

Improving consumer sentiment, as reported by GfK, suggests that the notoriously volatile retail sales could pick up again soon. We expect household consumption to be a major GDP growth driver in 2012.

Household Consumption Major GDP Driver?!

Points of Contention

1. My reaction to Barclays is "Please be Serious". It is quite obvious that Europe is in a recession already.
2. It is also obvious that austerity measures in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and France will deepen the recession.
3. It is equally obvious the recession will be long and deep.
4. Finally, given that Germany depends on exports, especially to European countries, it should be obvious that Germany will be impacted, much more than economists and analysts think.

Then again, in reference to number 4 above, that is precisely why the falloff in retail sales was "unexpected" in the first place. Analysts and economists crunch numbers, looking in the rear view mirror instead of thinking ahead.

Watch for analysts' reports in the months ahead to comment on "unexpected" declines in German consumer sentiment, further "unexpected" declines in German industrial output, further "unexpected" drops in GDP, and further "unexpected" drops in retail sales.

Bear in mind, given the above cited "volatility" in retail sales, we just might see an unexpected "rise" in German economic numbers for a month or so. If so, don't make anything of it. It won't last.

Math Addendum

If it's fair for me to criticize Barclay's it is equally fair for them to criticize me.

In response to Greek Bond Math (Assuming the Deal Goes Through) ; Merkel Faces Backlash Over Deal; Political Zugzwang I received an email from a credit analyst at Barclays who prefers to remain anonymous. Here are his personal thoughts ...

The majority of the 145bn is for paying down existing debt, it is not additional debt

Current debt ~330bn split 120bn/210bn public/private
Post restructuring ~220bn split 120bn/100bn public/private

The 145bn then pays off ~80bn of the publicly held debt that matures + government deficit over 8 years + recapping the Greek banks (45bn)
So the net the government debt would end up at ~285bn (220+145-80)

Your basic point stands (debt is unsustainable), but worth getting the numbers right.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Crime Down 20%

Everything is down. Except that silly homicide number:

• Ten days after Mayor Rahm Emanuel made a point to highlight Chicago went 24 hours without a homicide, he confronted a more sobering statistic on Monday: the murder rate is up 53.8 percent from the same period a year ago.

  Through mid-day Monday, Chicago had recorded 40 January homicides, compared to just 26 murders during the same period a year ago. The number of shooting incidents remained constant at 140 during both periods.

• McCarthy argued that Chicago’s overall crime rate is down 20 percent over the same period a year ago and that “every single [other] category of crime” is down.

Everything else is down, but the BIG stat is up almost 54%? Something isn't tracking here. And the number of shootings is exactly the same as last year, even though the weather is waaaaaay warmer? Can you smell the bullshit from here?

• He further noted increases in a host of “enforcement actions” by rank-and-file police officers: contact cards filed by police making stops (up 43 percent); administrative notices of violations (up 48 percent); gang dispersals (up 18 percent) and curfew violations (up 25 percent).

Ah, that explains it. CompStat is notorious for cooking the numbers. In fact, we believe that the book we've referenced the past couple of days exposes the number baking for what it is.

Missing the Point

Yesterday we posted this photo:

We made our regular sarcastic comments about "drinking being ok" again and made some backhanded reference to non-functional streetlights. Evidently, all the G-Mac fans came out of the closet to call us and our readers names, question our motivations and completely miss the point of the post:

• This post was not about going out and having a beer, but about having a beer and going out to sit in $1,200 seats. Did G-Mac accept a $1,200 gift that might cause problems down the road?
• It was also about a guy with some pretty big self control issues where alcohol is concerned. Do we really have to rehash the parking ticket fiasco that resulted in his arrest? His shooting out streetlights? The Unit Christmas party where beer muscles met beer muscles? The White Eagle event?
• We would also argue that we wanted to make fun of the prevailing attitude that for us to have a beer, we can only drink it in the privacy of our basements, with the windows closed tight, the curtains drawn and the phones off in case work calls.

We're not going to say we've never enjoyed a beer at a game or a bar or a barbecue - we'd be straight up liars first of all.

This post was more about the perception of impropriety. You'd better believe there's more than a little of that going around here.

Go Ahead, Break the Law

If you don't like the law, advocate for change. Write letters. Contribute money. Consult any PAC's you may belong to. Don't do something like this:

• Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy says he supports the video and audio recording of police officers who are on the job.

  McCarthy talked to ABC 7 Monday about his position on the state's eavesdropping law, which makes the recording the audio of officers without their knowledge a felony.

  McCarthy's comments come as a state representative works to change that law. Like many citizens, McCarthy did not know the specifics of the eavesdropping law.

  The superintendent learned -- much to his chagrin -- that the eavesdropping law in Illinois is much more restrictive than what he was used to back east. It is his job to enforce the law as it stands, but this is clearly a law he is not fond of, and his voice as the head man of the state's largest law enforcement agency carries significant weight in this debate.

You still have to enforce the law on the books and the existing law says, "No recording." If G-Mac doesn't want us enforcing the will of the legislature, then put pencil to paper and sign the order, but be prepared for the consequences.

Part Time Job Pays Well

Guess who's making a bunch of money for a part time gig?

• The salaries of Chicago’s aldermen rise — or even fall — with the city’s cost of living under a 2006 ordinance. But City Council members can forgo the raises and opt out of the cuts in any given year. As a result of those individual choices, aldermanic salaries now vary by as much as $11,000.

  How this played out: 19 aldermen who took all the increases on the table and also decided against taking a pay cut in 2010 are being paid $114,913 this year. The three aldermen who declined all the raises have a salary of $104,101. The rest fall somewhere between.

And there's a pension at the end, too.

No Hiring in Phoenix

You thought we had it bad?

• The Phoenix Police Department will extend its hiring freeze to 2015, which means the city would go 6½ years without a new officer recruited to the force.

  City officials have relied on attrition -- keeping positions unfilled as officers have left the department -- to avoid layoffs as a way to make up for lagging sales-tax collections dedicated to funding public safety.

Imagine being the low seniority guy in the last class of 2008/2009.

You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet; Another Trillion (or Two) Euro LTRO Coming Next Month

Last month, European banks tapped the ECB for €489bn in a long-term refinance operation dubbed LTRO. On February 29, another round of LTRO is coming up and expect banks to go for the gusto. Banks like cheap money to speculate and that is exactly what they will do.

The Financial Times reports Banks set to double crisis loans from ECB

European banks are preparing to tap the European Central Bank’s emergency funding scheme for up to twice as much as the ECB supplied in its debut €489bn auction last month, providing further evidence of the sector’s liquidity squeeze.

Several of the eurozone’s biggest banks have told the Financial Times that they could well double or triple their request for funds in the ECB’s three-year money auction on February 29.

“Banks are not going to be as shy second time round,” said the head of one eurozone bank at last week’s World Economic Forum in Davos. “We should have done more first time.”

Three bank chief executives, all of whom asked to remain anonymous, said they were planning to increase their participation twofold or threefold.

Unlimited Money for Three Years at One Percent

The ECB is offering unlimited money to banks for three years, at one percent. Banks are salivating because the first round went well.

The money is supposed to go for bank lending but it won't. Why should banks lend? They have a guaranteed profit by speculating in Spanish or Italian bonds, assuming of course Spain and Italy do not need bailouts coupled with a writedown on government debt.

However, that's quite a risk, and in my opinion Spain will need such a writedown. If so, Germany will be on the hook once again.

For a discussion about how futile this is, please see Premature Dollar Obituaries and Mainstream Economists' Monetary Insanity; Keynes-Inspired Great Depression; Lessons Not Learned

Money Supply Will Soar, Lending Won't

Don't expect the next LTRO to make it into the real economy. It won't. Rather the LTRO will fuel more bank speculation and more leverage in government bonds. Money supply will soar, lending won't and this rates to be good for gold.

In the meantime, please sing along with Bachman Turner Overdrive (and the ECB).



Link if video does not play: Bachman Turner Overdrive - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet .

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Portugal's Debt Will Be Restructured; 3-Year Government Bond Yield Tops 25%; CDS at Record High, Implies 72% Chance of Default

Inquiring minds are watching Portuguese government bonds soar into the stratosphere, with record-high bond yields across the entire yield curve.

In all the images below, the numbers are accurate but the charts reflect yesterday. I have mentioned this to Bloomberg a number of times to no avail.

Portugal 2-year Government Bonds



Portugal 3-year Government Bonds



Portugal 5-year Government Bonds



Portugal 10-year Government Bonds



Notice the opens and the lows in the charts above.

Bloomberg reports "The Frankfurt-based ECB bought Portuguese government bonds today, according to three people with knowledge of the transactions, who declined to be identified because the deals are confidential. A spokesman for the ECB declined to comment when contacted by phone."

My take is the ECB foolishly attempted to manipulate Portugal's bond market at the open, then was blown out of the water in the process. The ECB recklessly bought Greek bond and learned nothing from it.

Portugal's Debt Will Be Restructured

Adrian Miller, a fixed-income strategist at GMP Securities LLC, talks about the outlook for the European debt crisis. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness with Margaret Brennan."



Link if video does not play: Portugal's Debt Will Be Restructured

CDS at Record High, 72% Chance of Default

Bloomberg reports Credit default swaps implied a 72 percent chance Portugal will default within five years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

6 PM on Channel 5

Channel 5 is doing a story about the tremendous jump in homicide numbers for January. We'll provide a link when they get it up on the website.

Now if they'd just tie it into the numbers game know as CompStat.

Some basic investigative reporting might reveal a number of shady accounting of crime and the accompanying statistics.

UPDATE: Link is here.

Brussels Hit by First Coordinated Strike in Nearly Two Decades; Spain to Miss Deficit Reduction Goals; France Halved 2012 Growth Forecast to 0.5 Percent; Ten Things to Expect in Europe

The Financial Times reports Brussels hit by strike as EU leaders meet.

A general strike brought widespread disruption to Belgium on Monday, as European Union leaders arrived for a summit in Brussels with a focus on boosting employment across the region. Trains, shipping, air travel and public transport were all hit by the trade union action, called in response to reforms enacted hastily by the new government of Elio Di Rupo.

It is the first time in nearly two decades that unions from all sectors of the economy have co-ordinated a strike. As well as schools, the postal service and other branches of the public sector, some private enterprises were affected as unions flexed their muscles.

The strikes in the EU’s capital are a reflection of union discontent across the continent, worried that austerity measures will jeopardise the recovery. A Europe-wide “day of action”, bringing together unions from across the continent, is planned for February 29.

Voter distress and open dissent is no where close to peaking.

Spain to Miss Deficit Reduction Goals

Courtesy of Google Translate, please consider Spain deficit to Hit 6.8% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, according to IMF

6.8% is far from the 4.4% that the European Commission has imposed
IMF predicts two years of recession, with declines of 1.7 and 0.3% in 2012 and 2013

Spain will not meet deficit reduction goals of the European Commission in 2012 and 2013. Specifically, the IMF projects that the deficit will be within 6.8% of GDP in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, when Brussels requires, at most, a deficit of 4.4% this year and 3% next.

The agency, predicts a recession of two years for the Spanish economy, ending the last three months of this year with a contraction of 2.1%. This indicates the organization in the latest update to its Global Growth Outlook, published today in Washington.

France Halved 2012 Growth Forecast to 0.5 Percent

Yahoo! Finance reports EU leaders struggle to reconcile austerity, growth

European leaders struggled to reconcile austerity with growth on Monday at a summit that approved a permanent rescue fund for the euro zone and was trying to put finishing touches to a German-driven pact for stricter budget discipline.

Officially, the half-day 27-nation summit was meant to focus on ways to revive growth and create jobs at a time when governments across Europe are having to cut public spending and raise taxes to tackle mountains of debt.

But disputes over the limits of austerity, and Greece's unfinished debt restructuring negotiations with private bondholders, hampered efforts to send a more optimistic message that Europe is getting on top of its debt crisis.

Spain's economy contracted in the last quarter of 2011 for the first time in two years and looks set to slip into a long recession.

France halved its 2012 growth forecast to a mere 0.5 percent in another potentially ominous sign for President Nicolas Sarkozy's troubled bid for re-election in May. Prime Minister Francois Fillon said the cut would not entail further budget saving measures.

Conservative Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, attending his first EU summit, said Madrid was clearly not going to meet its target of 2.3 percent growth this year. That has raised big doubts about whether it can cut its budget deficit from around 8 percent of economic output in 2011 to 4.4 percent by the end of this year as promised.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso hinted Brussels may ease Spain's near-unattainable 2012 deficit target after it updates EU growth forecasts on February 23.

Bickering Continues

It is quite rare, if not unprecedented, for the head of the European Parliament to criticize what Merkel and Sarkozy hailed as "progress", yet that is exactly what happened.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz told the leaders the new fiscal treaty was unnecessary and unbalanced, because it failed to combine budget rigor with necessary investment in public works to create jobs.

"To write into law a Germanic view of how one should run an economy and that essentially makes Keynesianism illegal is not something we would do," a British official said.

Merkel has said she will not discuss the issue of the ESM/EFSF's ceiling until the next EU summit in March. Meanwhile, financial markets will continue to worry that there may not be sufficient rescue funds available to help the likes of Italy and Spain if they run into renewed debt funding problems.

The sticking point is German public opinion which is tired of bailing out the euro zone's financially less prudent.

Ten Things to Expect in Europe

1. More bickering
2. More strikes
3. More emergency meetings
4. More trade wars, especially between Spain and France
5. Tobin Tax will backfire in France
6. Missed budget estimates across the board
7. Missed growth estimates across the board
8. Deep and lengthy recession will affect entire global economy
9. Recession will include France and Germany contrary to popular belief
10. End of Sarkozy's political career

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Bond Math (Assuming the Deal Goes Through) ; Merkel Faces Backlash Over Deal; Political Zugzwang

Rumors that a deal will be reached "soon" have gone on for weeks. Indeed announcements of an expected agreement today have already hit new snags.

For the sake of argument, let's assume a deal does go through, then crunch the latest numbers to see what the situation looks like from the point of view of Greece (and the lenders as well) before and after the deal.

The place to start is the current projection for the size of the next needed bailout.

Please consider Greece Needs EU145 Billion in Second Aid Package

Greece requires 145 billion euros ($192 billion) as part of a second aid package for the cash- strapped country, 15 billion euros more than was agreed in October 2011, Der Spiegel reported, citing an unidentified official from the so-called troika of European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Greece needs more money because the country’s economic situation is worsening, the German magazine cited the official as saying. The gap can’t be filled by contributions from private creditors alone, it said.

Bigger Bailout Needed

So, presuming a deal goes through, Greece is going to take on another 145 billion euros of debt, up from 130 billion last week.

Let's now turn our attention to the latest deal rumors.

Private Investors Near Deal on Greek Debt

Bloomberg reports Private Investors Near Deal on Greek Debt

Let's assume for the moment that "near" really means "near" and not five weeks from now when undoubtedly Greek conditions will have deteriorated further, requiring of course a bigger bailout. Here are the pertinent ideas from the article to consider.

• Investors holding euro206 billion in Greek bonds would exchange them for new bonds worth 60 percent less
• The new bonds' face value is half of the existing bonds. They would have a longer maturity and pay an average interest rate of slightly less than 4 percent.
• The deal would reduce Greece's annual interest expense on the bonds from about euro10 billion to about euro4 billion.
• When the bonds mature, instead of paying bondholders euro206 billion, Greece will have to pay only euro103 billion.
• The deal would reduce Greece's debt load by at least euro120 billion
• Greece faces a euro14.5 billion bond repayment on March 20, which it cannot afford without additional help

Three Essential Facts 

1. The new deal will reduce existing debt by 120 billion
2. The new bailout funds will take the debt load up by 145 billion
3. The net result is an increase in Greek debt of 25 billion

[Note: That math is incorrect - See Addendum]

This is supposed to work? The reduced interest rate to 3.6% will of course help Greece. But what is the interest rate on new debt?

Regardless, given Greece's deteriorating financial condition, exactly how long will it take before the EU and IMF realize once again that Greece cannot possibly pay back the new 145 billion?

In whose best interest is this deal? I fail to see how it benefits anyone.

Merkel Faces Backlash Over Deal

The Financial Times reports Merkel faces backlash over EU pact

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is facing growing political pressure at home to demand stricter fiscal discipline from her eurozone partners at an extraordinary European Union summit in Brussels on Monday.

She also faces a potential revolt by conservative members of the German parliament over any call for more taxpayers’ money to bail out the ailing Greek economy.

“If the Greeks don’t put the reform programme into effect, there can be no more help,” said Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavaria-based Christian Social Union, in an interview with Spiegel magazine.

Philipp Rösler, economy minister and leader of the liberal Free Democratic party, junior partners in Ms Merkel’s government, threw his weight behind the call for stricter control over the Greek programme. “If the Greeks cannot do it themselves, there must be stronger leadership and supervision from outside, for example from the EU,” he said.

On the eve of the EU summit, which is supposed to finalise a formal treaty on budget discipline, Ms Merkel’s supporters in the German Bundestag are also calling for those rules to be made tougher.

“As it stands, the draft treaty does not go far enough,” a senior official of the Christian Democratic Union in the parliament said on Sunday. He said the centre-right group wanted sanctions to be imposed more automatically for excess debt and deficits, and a tighter timetable for all 17 eurozone members to introduce a binding commitment to balanced budgets in their national constitutions.

Political Zugzwang

Zugzwang is a term in chess. A player has to make a move but every move weakens the position. Pass is not an option.

Merkel is in such a no-win position. Everything she does will put her under attack by someone. Doing nothing, is an option in politics but not chess. However, doing nothing also exposes Merkel to attack.

Attacks Fly

Check out this nonsense from former European Commission chief Jacques Delors who says Resistance to eurozone bailout boost 'scandalous'

Former European Commission chief Jacques Delors on Sunday blasted the reluctance of eurozone countries like Germany to boost the size of the Greek bailout and create a system of eurobonds to facilitate lending.

"It is scandalous. You cannot be a member of the euro cooperation and at the same time say no to elementary demands for solidarity with other members within the framework of existing agreements," the prominent European federalist said in an interview with Dagens Nyheter, Sweden's daily of reference.

"We have to save Greece together. What has been done so far is too little, too late," he added.

Delors, who was commission chief between 1985-95 and a key player in creating the framework for the euro's 1999 launch, said it was "out of the question" to push Greece out of the eurozone and insisted the solution was for "Greece to privatise more of its economy."

"The euro countries also must together introduce common eurobonds, ... not to finance the current debt but to create greater efficiency and connectivity in the financial and monetary system," the 86-year-old Frenchman said.

The creation of such a "eurobond," which would pool the debt of the entire monetary bloc in a bid to reassure markets and facilitate lending, has long been a contentious issue among top policymakers, with the European Commission and France being in favour of such an instrument but Germany strictly opposed for now.

"It is a mistake of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to refuse to go along with such bonds," Delors said.

Delors' Self-Serving Pomp

What's scandalous if for political hacks like Delors to assume the Eurozone is worth saving, then tell everyone else how to go about it without taking into consideration any restraints others may have.

I suggest the euro is not worth saving. For the sake of argument, however, let's assume the eurozone is worth saving, and start with a look at Merkel's options.


Merkel's Predicament

1. If Merkel proposed Eurobonds, her coalition would collapse and she would be ousted. Moreover, the German supreme court would certainly demand a referendum which would fail. The irony then, is if Merkel did what Delores asked, the eurozone would fly apart right here right now.
2. If Merkel proposed significantly more bailout money, her coalition would also collapse and once again the proposal would be at risk of a challenge from the German supreme court.
3. If Merkel does nothing, she takes heat from political dimwits like Delors and an entire gamut of other nanny-zone supporters. She also takes heat from her coalition.
4. If Merkel steps up the pressure on Greece she hears it from her political opposition, from Delors, and from a whole host of parties representing a myriad of political views.

That my friends is political zugzwang and that is precisely why she called for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner".

Her proposal elevated the ire of Greeks as well as the likes of political hacks like Delors. Yet, that option is the one that made the most sense.  It was her least-worst option, that also bought her and the eurozone the most time.

It is the only option that has any chance of working.

By making those demands, she has a chance of keeping her coalition together. Indeed, if her demand are met or if Greece exits the eurozone in response, she might even be viewed as a hero!

Simply put, she is doing everything she can to keep the eurozone together. For doing the best she possibly can under the circumstances, she gets nothing but grief.

I think the best thing for the Eurozone would be for Germany to exit. The irony is that would likely happen if Merkel embarked down the path demanded by eurofools like Jacques Delors.

Addendum:

I received an email from a credit analyst at Barclays who prefers to remain anonymous. Here are his personal thoughts ...

The majority of the 145bn is for paying down existing debt, it is not additional debt

Current debt ~330bn split 120bn/210bn public/private
Post restructuring ~220bn split 120bn/100bn public/private

The 145bn then pays off ~80bn of the publicly held debt that matures + government deficit over 8 years + recapping the Greek banks (45bn)
So the net the government debt would end up at ~285bn (220+145-80)

Your basic point stands (debt is unsustainable), but worth getting the numbers right.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Why the Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea; Sweden's Experience With the Tax; Details of Sarkozy's Proposed Tax; Sarkozy Wants to "Provoke a Shock"

There is massive theoretical as well as actual real life evidence that financial transaction taxes will backfire, but that never stops politicians hell-bent on plowing ahead with "it's different this time" horrendous ideas.

Via Google Translate from Les Echos, please consider Sarkozy's stock exchange tax as of August 1

The 0.1% tax on financial transactions will apply from 1 August. In addition to equities, derivatives and high frequency trading are also covered.

Drawn up in haste, the tax on financial transactions is still the subject of intense discussions with the banking sector. A meeting has yet to take place on Monday to clarify the exact scope of covered products.

Many things are acquired, however: the tax will be paid by the people who buy a financial product, not by those who sell it. As reported Sunday, by the head of state, it will amount to 0.1% regardless of the nature of the product purchased (equities, derivatives) and will apply from 1 August, leaving a few months to Germany to eventually join the movement.

Three types of products involved

The law affects three different types of products: stocks, derivatives (including the famous' credit default swaps ", CDS) and high frequency trading-that is to say execution in microseconds of financial transactions by the only way of computing. This activity represents a huge chunk of transactions (about one-third). But most of the computers being located in London, the government will struggle to reach this activity. Still: he wants to show that tackles the most speculative operations.

Sarkozy Wants to "Provoke a Shock"

Bloomberg provides more details in Sarkozy Says France to Tax Financial Transactions From August

France plans to unilaterally impose a 0.1 percent tax on financial transactions starting in August, President Nicolas Sarkozy said, brushing aside opposition from the nation’s banks.

“What we want to do is provoke a shock, to set an example,” Sarkozy said late yesterday on French television from Paris. “There’s no reason why deregulated finance, which brought us to the current situation, can’t participate in the restoration of our accounts.”

“CDSs, which are speculative instruments against sovereign debt, will be taxed and online speculative purchases will be taxed,” he said.

Ernst & Young, an accounting company, has said in a report that while an EU transaction tax itself may raise as much as 37 billion euros, its net effect could be negative by between 2 billion euros and 116 billion euros by decreasing economic activity and reducing revenue from other taxes.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads in the French presidential election polls. He has the support of 31 percent of voters in the first round, 6 points more than Sarkozy, and his second-round lead has risen to 20 points at 60 percent, according to a CSA poll published last week. Hollande, too, has pledged to impose a tax of financial transactions, if he’s elected.

Sweden’s Experience with the Tobin Tax

The Peterson Institute for International Economics presents Sweden’s Experience with the Tobin Tax

The Swedish Social Democratic government enacted a transaction tax on stocks, bonds, options, and some other securities in 1983. The tax, named after the economist James Tobin, was abolished by the new nonsocialist government in 1991.

The tax rates varied from 0.1 percent on ordinary stock trade to 0.15 percent on treasuries and 1 percent on options.

The Tobin tax in Sweden was a devastating failure that nobody would like to revive.

1. The expectation had been that the tax revenues would be 1.5 billion Swedish krona (SEK), but they stopped at SEK80 million.

2. Most Swedish trade in securities disappeared and went abroad, mainly to Oslo and London, and never returned. Soon after, the previously tiny Oslo stock exchange overtook the Stockholm stock exchange, and it is still the larger of the two stock exchanges.

There is no way that the current non-socialist Swedish government would accept a Tobin tax, as they know the security trade would leave the European Union.

In general, the Nordic and Baltic governments are amazed by what they view as a combination of arrogance, incompetence, madness, and slowness in Brussels, Paris, Berlin, and London. These sentiments are rather stronger in this region than in Washington. These countries are run by people who know how to handle crises, but they are effectively excluded from EU decision making.

Sarkozy's Pledge of Going it Alone

That discussion is all one should need to read to determine France would be acting very foolishly to implement such a tax.

Sarkozy thinks Germany would "soon" follow. As we have seen in the Eurozone, political decisions seldom if ever happen soon. Moreover, why would Germany act instead of watching France for a while?

Ironically, as soon as Germany saw the results in France (which likely would be soon), there is little chance they would implement such a foolish thing ever.

But what if all the European countries agreed to do it? We already know the UK opted out, but for the sake of argument, let's assume even the UK agreed.

The first that that would happen would be a mad scramble to execute transactions in the US, Switzerland, or Hong Kong. Nonetheless, let's assume the long arm of the law still managed to tax those transactions. What then?

Expect Increased Volatility, Decreased Trading Volumes, Lower Share Prices

The Adam Smith Institute offers a Comparative Study of the Potential Effects of a UK Tobin Tax. Here are some snips.

Sweden’s Experience with the Tobin tax

The rise and fall of the only case of a “pure” Tobin tax began in Sweden, when a 0.5% tax on the purchase of all equity securities (and stock options) was introduced on 1st January 1984. The tax applied to both domestic and foreign customers, and was levied directly on registered Swedish brokerage services.

Until 1987, inter-broker trades were considered intermediate (and hence exempt). ‘Round trip’ taxation effectively made the net taxation 1%, or 100 basis points. This was doubled in 1986, and later to include fixed income. Furthermore, a tax on stock options of 2% was introduced (1% relating to the premium, 1% upon exercise).

Understandably, investors devalued their assets to reflect the present value of future tax payments on the marginal share. The 2.2% average decrease in share prices on the announcement day added to the -5.35% index return over the 30 day period including the announcement. A further 1% share price reduction was seen in 1988 in reaction to the rate doubling.

Decreased Trading Volumes

Decreasing trading volumes led to secondary effects such as a reduction in capital gains taxes, almost entirely netting the (exceptionally low) tax revenue being generated.

Despite the tax being higher on equities, it was the fixed income market that suffered most. Despite the ‘low’ 0.003% tax levied on 5-year bonds, trading volumes dropped by 85% alone in the first week after implementation. Futures trading fell by 98%, and the options market was virtually non-existent.

Liquidity

All market participants would be subject to the tax; a Tobin tax is unable to discriminate between de-stabilising trades and those which provide liquidity, information and tradefinancing. With short-term trading providing invaluable liquidity to the market, an incapability to segregate individual trader motivations will therefore lead to a reduction in both liquidity and welfare-enhancing trade, in addition to increasing market susceptibility to individual shocks.

Robin Hood

Whilst the Tobin tax’s roots lie in economic theory, its current appeal is evidently political. The Robin Hood imagery drives the tax’s public support. It is its ‘stealing from the rich to give to the poor’ appeal that attracts many of its advocates, not the belief in its realistic economic capability. Understandably, some people are more-easily influenced by a well publicised, celebrity-endorsed Robin Hood Tax marketing campaign than by econometrical analysis or time series data.

Capital Flight

The experience of Sweden is one of capital flight. Odds are it would happen again.

The ATM Effect

The Adam Smith article contained an interesting analogy regarding ATM usage. When fees were zero, people would think nothing of doing an ATM transaction for $20. With fees of $2, you have to be pretty desperate to do an ATM transaction for $20. Instead, you would do one for your maximum limit. Some only use an ATM in an emergency and keep a pile of cash in their house instead.

In a falling market short-term traders provide liquidity (so do those shorting). Yet, Robin Hood proponents will drive those short-term traders away.

"In thinner markets, each trade would have a larger impact on price; resulting in less fluidity within the currency inventories of broker-dealers, the ‘liquidity providers’ of the market."

I fail to see how reduced liquidity and increased volatility will not be the result.

Four Reasons Tobin Tax is a Bad Idea

1. It would encourage capital flight (I know hedge funds that have contingency plans to move their entire operations to the Caribbean if such a tax is passed)
2. It would drive out short-term traders who provide much needed liquidity
3. Reduced liquidity would lead to increased volatility at the worst times
4. Pension plans  and mutual funds would bear much of the brunt of the tax. Rest assured market makers will find a way to pass their costs on.   

The results in Sweden are conclusive. A ‘low’ 0.003% tax levied on 5-year bonds caused trading volumes dropped by 85% in the first week after implementation.

Five-year US treasuries now yield .74%. Three-month treasuries yield .05%. Corporate bond yields are pathetic. How much of that do you want to take away?

Excluding bonds is not the answer. Liquidity and capital flight arguments suggests this idea should never get off the ground for any transactions.

By the way, buyers of CDS are often hedgers. Tax them heavily and there will be less interest in the underlying bonds. I would also point out that the speculators Sarkozy want to drive out of the market just happen to provide liquidity. Short sellers eventually cover, and provide fuel for rallies. Day traders will step into falling markets when others won't.

Sarkozy will "provoke a shock" alright, and it may crash the markets when he does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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